Speculation on Political Jockeying Has Begun

Published March 7, 2013

Much like the old hot stove league sat around talking about baseball during the off season so do political junkies talk elections, and talk has already begun about the 2014 and 2016 elections in North Carolina.

Headlining 2014 will be US Senator Kay Hagan’s is re-election campaign. First-term incumbents are thought to be the most vulnerable, as Senator Dole found out when Hagan beat her in 2008. Now Republicans believe Hagan vulnerable and polling data would tend to confirm their beliefs. PPP reports Hagan with a 39 percent job approval rating, but 38 percent disapprove of the job she is doing. The approval number isn’t that bad at this early stage but the number that should be keeping Hagan awake at night is the high disapproval rating, especially among Independents, who account for 24 percent of registered voters and are growing in their disapproval of her performance. She clearly has work to do back here in North Carolina.  Most don’t think Hagan will have a serious primary election challenger but will have a real fight on her hands in the general election.

There are many mentioned as possible Republican opponents and PPP is already testing their names with voters. The Republican with the best statewide name recognition is Labor Commissioner Cheri Berry, who has been elected statewide several times. Also polled were US Representatives Patrick McHenry, Virginia Foxx, Renee Ellmers and George Holding, along with House Speaker Thom Tillis, Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger and Terry Embler. In early PPP polling Hagan leads all of them by margins of 5 to 15 points. The closest at this time is McHenry and while it is far too early to handicap them but we suspect  McHenry, Foxx and Ellmers will decide to stay in their safe congressional seats. Berry might do the same, though she could be a contender…her picture is posted on every elevator in the state. Holding could finance his own campaign.

Tillis is a pretty sure bet to make the contest since he has already promised not to seek re-election as House Speaker in 2014. Berger threw a test line in the water this week and is waiting to see what nibbles he gets. If Berger does run we will have a turnover in legislative leadership following the 2014 elections.

Polls show the public doesn’t much approve of the job the legislature is doing. 49 percent of voters disapprove, with but 33 percent having a favorable rating. Democrats scored 45 percent approval and 44 percent disapproval, but these numbers don’t suggest a turnover in control of the legislature in 2014 because redistricting almost assures them a majority in both houses. Most people have an unfavorable rating of Congress, the legislature and their local elected boards, but they still think their representative is doing a good job and tend to re-elect.

Then we come to the 2016 gubernatorial election an eternity from now. So much can happen to tilt those elections that any conjecture is just that, still it is the off-season and pundits like to speculate.

Let’s start with the incumbent. Likable as he is, the jury is out on Pat McCrory. PPP shows his popularity spread waning a little.  In the first two months of his administration voters are still trying to determine what kind of governor Pat McCrory is. The legislature has taken a pretty aggressive lead thus far in the new Republican government, with McCrory pretty quiet on issues. This is causing some moderate Democrats and independents who backed McCrory last November to re-think their support. His state-of-the-state address didn’t sizzle and even though he is moving about the state, visiting towns and shaking hands he has yet to take charge and be assertive. No major slips so far but also no major victories.

The first really big test of his administration comes with the presentation of the McCrory budget later this month. Will we see the moderate Pat or the right-wing Pat? With this document the rhetoric yields to the numbers and we get see where the Governor places his priorities. McCrory has a bit of a problem: he play to the conservative right while appeasing the moderate middle.

Democrats are obviously watching closely but it is not too early to see who is moving around the state in order to get some insight who might be interested. The names currently being most prominently mentioned include Attorney General Roy Cooper, State Treasurer Janet Cowell and Blue Cross CEO Brad Wilson. Cooper has been mentioned before but always gets gun-shy and backs away. Despite being elected to a second term Cowell is not widely known. Wilson will have the cash to self-fund (if needed) a campaign and will get the blessing of Jim Hunt. He served on the Jim Hunt DOT board in Hunt’s first eight years as governor and as his legal counsel during Hunt 3.

Hey, it's the off season so there's time to talk …especially when the weather is too windy and cold to get outside, the legislature has settled down to routine and March madness hasn’t begun.