We often hear about tariffs and trade wars in the context of global headlines and political grandstanding. But beneath the noise, these policies are reshaping local economies and pushing small-business owners, family farms, and retirees into dangerous territory — and no one in Washington seems to be listening.
Recently, I hosted two conversations through my podcast that paint a clearer picture of what’s really happening. One was with Zeb Williams, co-owner of Old Nick Williams Distillery in Forsyth County; along with Bob and Marlowe Ivey, a father-daughter hog-farming team in eastern North Carolina. The other was with Theodore Hicks, founder and chief investment officer of Hicks & Associates Wealth Management in Cary, who is also a John Locke Foundation board member.
Different conversations, different sectors — but the same conclusion: tariffs, uncertainty, and market volatility are hurting families and small businesses.
Let’s start with Zeb. His distillery is one of the oldest in the country, a legacy business his family brought back to life. But when COVID disrupted the global supply chain, American glass manufacturers couldn’t meet demand. Like many small-scale producers, Zeb turned to international suppliers, particularly in China, where quality was better and costs were far lower.
Today, with tariffs rising again, he’s watching glass prices closely. A mold for a custom bottle costs $25,000 in the United States, but only $2,500-$5,000 overseas. If tariffs continue to spike, Zeb may be forced to pass those costs to consumers or reduce production — either way, it’s a lose-lose for a small business that’s already survived a pandemic.
Meanwhile, on the agriculture side, Marlowe and Bob made it clear: the pork industry lives and dies by trade. Markets like China, Mexico, and Canada aren’t optional — they’re essential. When tariffs go up, demand goes down, and small producers are left holding the bag. As Bob, a board member of the National Pork Producers Council, shared, the volatility caused by trade wars puts stress not only on their revenue but on their ability to plan for the future.
What strikes me most is how these policies aren’t hurting massive corporations insulated by capital and political influence. They’re hurting Zeb, who’s trying to source glass. They’re hurting Marlowe, who’s teaching her daughter about legacy and livestock. They’re hurting every North Carolinian trying to build something that lasts in the face of uncertainty.
And this isn’t just about tariffs. It’s about broader economic fragility.
In my conversation with investment advisor Theodore Hicks, we dug into the macro view — and it only reinforced what I heard from the farmers and distillers on the ground. Theodore described how the market was already weakening before this year’s policy shocks. Now, we’re facing significant bond-market declines, inflation, and a looming threat of stagflation.
His advice? Evidence-based investing and a clear, adaptable strategy. That’s great wisdom for investors — but where is that same logic in our policymaking?
Theodore made a point I can’t stop thinking about: “The stock market is a good economist — it tries to price in the future.” But what happens when the future is being constantly disrupted by inconsistent trade policy, unclear direction, and an erosion of trust in institutions?
Whether you’re managing a farm, a distillery, or your retirement portfolio, uncertainty is a hidden tax. It delays decision-making. It discourages investment. And it makes small business owners and working families more vulnerable to shocks.
Theodore told me that his clients, including people like my own mother nearing retirement, are concerned not just about volatility but about whether they’ll be able to weather the next downturn. They’re asking tough questions. So are farmers. So are entrepreneurs. But what answers are we getting?
We need smarter trade agreements that reflect today’s interconnected economy — not reactionary measures designed to score political points. We need to have transparency and logic in our trade, tax, and energy policies — because small businesses don’t operate on cable news cycles. They operate on balance sheets and razor-thin margins.
We also need policymakers who understand that tariffs don’t just “hurt China.” They ripple across Main Street. They increase costs for American producers. They destroy export markets for farmers. They add risk to already fragile communities.
At the same time, we should be educating the public about what’s really at stake. These aren’t abstract debates. This is about glass, grain, bacon, bourbon — and the families behind them.
I’m grateful to Zeb, Bob, Marlowe, and Theodore for being part of these conversations. They represent different parts of the economy, but they all share the same hope: that Washington will start to pay attention to the people who keep this country running — not just during elections, but every day.
