The 'midterm penalty' strikes again

North Carolina voters delivered a political setback to Republicans and handed Democrats an opportunity to lead. But the results tell a story that goes beyond a shift in party control. Voters were sending a message about what they expect from government — and what they don’t.

The election was a demand for change, driven in large part by economic frustration. While midterm elections have followed a remarkably consistent pattern over the past 50 years, the scale of the setback for Republicans is significant. The GOP missed the plot of the story unfolding in front of them. This election was ultimately about consumer prices, interest rates, and an economy in which many Americans feel stuck and frustrated.

Voters may appreciate declining crime, the opportunity to invest in Trump accounts for their children, and the tax relief provided by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But public safety, lower crime, and the promise of a secure future for their children represent the baseline of what voters expect from government, not the ceiling. They also expect an economy that allows them to get ahead. Republicans failed to fully recognize that distinction.

In addition to giving Democrats control of both chambers of Congress and the North Carolina House, voters in our state approved all three proposed constitutional amendments imposing property tax levy limits, voter ID, and a 3.5% cap on state income taxes. Meanwhile, voters in nine of the 11 municipalities that put sales tax increases on the ballot rejected them.

They voted for change, not socialism or bigger government. Voters changed drivers, but they didn’t surrender control of the steering wheel. They want a different direction, not a government without guardrails. A vote against one party should not automatically be interpreted as support for every policy in the other party’s platform.

This isn’t historically unusual. Often called the “midterm penalty,” the party holding the White House almost always loses seats in Congress during the president’s first midterm election.

Looking at the 13 midterm elections from 1974 through 2022, the president’s party lost House seats in 11 elections and gained seats in only two: 1998 under Bill Clinton and 2002 under George W. Bush. The largest losses came under Barack Obama in 2010, when Democrats lost 63 seats; Bill Clinton in 1994, when Democrats lost 54; Donald Trump in 2018, when Republicans lost 41; and George W. Bush in 2006, when Republicans lost 30. The average House loss across those 13 midterms was approximately 23 seats.

The US Senate is a different animal, with only about one-third of its members up for election every two years. Of those same 13 midterms, the president’s party lost Senate seats in eight, gained seats in four and broke even in one.

Large midterm losses can fundamentally change the balance of power, and presidential approval ratings often matter. North Carolina has cast its electoral votes for Trump three times, but presidents with approval ratings below 50% have generally experienced greater congressional losses. In Carolina Journal’s latest poll, Trump remains underwater in North Carolina, with a 43% overall approval rating. Among Republicans, however, he enjoys an 85% approval rating. That CJ poll had Republican Michael Whatley earning 39.01%. As of press time, the the NCSBE dashboard has unofficial results at 39.09% in Whatley’s column.

Therein lies the challenge for both parties in understanding the results and Trump’s influence. Republican enthusiasm was down amid broader economic frustration. In Carolina Journal’s October poll, the economy and cost of living ranked as voters’ top concerns, cited at three times the rate of the next closest issue.

The election exposed the risks of trying to drive a political narrative rather than listening to voters. The shift in North Carolina’s congressional delegation, from a 10-4 Republican advantage to an unofficial 9-5 Democratic advantage, underscores the scale of the change.

Democrats should be careful not to make the same mistake. Voters gave Democrats an opportunity to lead, not a blank check to expand government or pursue an agenda voters may not support. If Democrats mistake a rejection of Republican leadership for an endorsement of every plank in their own platform, they could find themselves facing the same midterm penalty two years from now.

Donna King serves as editor in chief for the Carolina Journal and Executive Vice President of the John Locke Foundation.