The race to watch: NC-11

When Republicans gerrymandered Congressional districts in North Carolina, they intended to give themselves ten districts, Democrats three, and make one, NC-01, a right-trending tossup. Jamie Ager may frustrate those efforts. Ager, grandson of the late Congressman Jamie Clark, offers the type of profile that could put North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District into play.

Ager is a farmer with deep roots in western North Carolina. His family has a long history of political service. His father served in the state house and his brother is currently serving the seat their father held. His grandfather held the seat Ager is seeking. The family is well-known in the area and has built a reputation for pragmatic leadership, less tied to ideology than a commitment to the people of the region.

Ager brings a temperament that fits the district. A profile by Corey Vaillancourt in the Smoky Mountain News reveals a moderate, pro-business, environmentally-conscious candidate more focused on jobs and hurricane recovery than partisan warfare. He’s clearly got good political instincts and understands the people of the district because he’s one of them.

Democrats across the district are excited about Ager’s candidacy. He faces a primary challenge from former Congressional candidate Moe Davis and a couple of other lesser known candidates, but the energy is decidedly with Ager, especially in the more rural counties. As a first-time candidate, Ager needs a primary. If he can’t get through it, he shouldn’t be the nominee, but if he does, he’ll get the practice he needs to face Edwards.

Much of the 11th CD was devastated by Hurricane Helene last September and is in the midst of a recovery effort that will take many years. The impact of the storm and the government’s reaction to it will certainly influence the race. Incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards will become the face of the Trump administration’s response. So far, the money from Congress has been far below what the region needs.

The district is also shifting, slowly, towards Democrats. It’s one of the few places in the country where Democrats improved their performance in 2024. While Asheville is the anchor for the progressive base, surrounding counties like Henderson and Polk are trending toward Democrats. The retirees moving to western North Carolina are coming as much for the vistas, trout streams, and hiking trails as they are for the golf courses and country clubs. They are far less Trumpy than many of their counterparts retiring to coastal regions.

Western North Carolina has always been conservative in the most traditional sense. The people generally don’t want to be told what to do. The region was divided during the Civil War because the residents were mainly subsistence farmers with few slaves and many people felt they didn’t have a stake in the fight. They’ve been as suspicious of big business as they have big government. National parks and forests have provided as many opportunities as they have inconveniences and the forest service is generally accepted, even if conflicts sometimes arise.

The region has swung back and forth between Democrats and Republicans for decades. While Republicans have controlled the district since the 2010 gerrymandering, Democrat Heath Shuler served in Congress for three terms from 2007-2011. In the 1980s, Ager’s grandfather got elected to Congress, lost after one term and then won again for two terms before losing in 1990 to Charles Taylor, who held the seat until Shuler beat him.

The 2026 cycle is shaping up to be a good bet to run in western North Carolina. The political environment will likely favor Democrats. With former Governor Roy Cooper in the race for the open Senate seat, there will be plenty of money for GOTV operations and a motivated Democratic base. Ager fits the district and could win some of the Trump voters he’ll need to defeat Edwards. He has the right profile and right temperament to make the race competitive.

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