The ringer and other US Senate candidates

Speculation about the US Senate race is hitting a high pitch. On the Democratic side, Democrats are increasingly confident that former Governor Roy Cooper is getting into the race. On the Republican side, a host of unkowns and a celebrity candidate are looking at the race. If Cooper enters the race, he will start as the clear front-runner for the open seat.

Republicans want Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump to jump in. They believe that having a Trump on the ticket will solve the low turnout problem that has plagued the party in midterm elections when Donald Trump is not on the ballot. Lara would continue the Republican tradition of rallying around Fox News hosts for positions they are unqualified to do.

In the wake of Tillis’s retirement announcement, Spectrum News reported that Republican Members of Congress Tim Moore, Greg Murphy, and Pat Harrigan are all considering running. I can’t find any confirmations that they’ve decided against a run. I suspect Moore and Murphey will take a pass, though. They are in safely gerrymandered seats and if they lose either in the primary or general election, their political careers may be ended.

Just as an aside, I went to Tim Moore’s twitter feed to see if I could gather any information about his intentions. That guy is embarrassing. The pandering to Donald Trump is as shameless as anything I’ve seen. He used to be serious guy, even if he was looking for self-enrichment, too. Now, he’s just a parody of a MAGA Congressman. That guy has sacrificed all of his self-respect to become grifter extraordinaire. It’s really pretty sad.

According to news sources, the Trump White House favors Lara Trump, Michael Whatley, and Pat Harrigan. Democrats would be probably be lucky to have any of the three on the ballot. Lara Trump is unproven and unqualified. Celebrity candidates implode more often than they catch fire. They tend to be thin-skinned and prickly, lacking any real political instincts. Lara’s father-in-law is obviously the exception, but his judgment about putting other Fox News celebrities like Pete Hegseth in positions of power has backfired. Lara has never had to work for anything in her life and running for US Senate is work, no matter who you are.

As for Michael Whatley, he’s a Republican insider and wheeler-dealer. He’s not a charismatic guy and he’s untested as a political candidate outside of party politics. It’s hard to imagine him appealing to the state’s swing voters or even firing up the base. Nothing I’ve seen indicates he would be a strong general election candidate.

Pat Harrigan is probably the wild card. He looks like an AI generated candidate. He comes with a resume boasting military and business experience. His logo includes either a putting green or a green beret, depending on how closely you look. Both are probably apt. He’s got a beautiful wife and two cute daughters named for Republican presidents. You can’t make this stuff up.

Maybe all of those trappings make for a great candidate, but I’m skeptical. Harrigan is a great MAGA Republican primary candidate where all the women resist aging, the kids get straight As in their private schools, and gun dealers are Christian heroes. He’s the style over substance candidate and I think most voters see through that.

Democrats all want Cooper, not because any of the other potential Democrats would be bad candidates, but because Cooper is a proven winner who boasts extremely high name recognition and strong favorability ratings. He would start the race as the front-runner. Any other Democrat would start even with the GOP candidates. They would also face a bruising primary that would leave them with a daunting fundraising challenge beginning in March.

Attorney General Jeff Jackson said he would not run and endorsed Cooper instead, leading to more speculation about Cooper’s intentions. The three Democrats besides Cooper and Jackson that have been mentioned include former Congressman Wiley Nickel who has already announced, Congressman Don Davis, and former Congressional candidate Dan McCready. All three could make solid candidates, but they all lack name recognition and none have run statewide.

Nickel won a competitive race for Congress in a Raleigh-based district before it was gerrymandered into a safe Republican seat. He’s known as a hard-worker and argues that he’s the only candidate running. I’m not sure that’s a great point. It makes him look more like an overly ambitious politician than a leader. He could have gotten out front and led the opposition to the Trump agenda but by announcing his candidacy, he made it about himself. Still, Nickel would be as strong as any Republican mentioned.

Dan McCready brings a strong resume to the race. He served in Iraq and built a successful business before running for Congress in the 9th Congressional District in 2018. He very narrowly lost but the race was troubled with voter fraud and he ran in a special election after the election was invalidated, losing to Dan Bishop. Still, he’s battle-tested having run in a Republican-leaning district and over-performing the Democrats as a whole.

Congressman Don Davis is the state’s most conservative Democratic Member of Congress. He’s won two races in a district that is trending toward Republicans. He knows a tough fight. He could appeal to the rural voters that Democrats have struggled to win over. As an African American candidate, Davis might also help drive up Black turnout, but that’s not guaranteed. In 2022, African American turnout dropped despite former Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley topping the ticket.

Overall, Democrat have a stronger field of candidates for US Senate than Republicans. That said, candidate quality doesn’t always matter. A strong GOP year in a state like North Carolina could sweep a Republican into office regardless of quality. Just look at Ted Budd.

Democrats, though, have a ringer. Roy Cooper is a proven leader who fits the state. He’s had two successful terms as governor and is still popular. He would start the race in a stronger position than other candidates in either party. He’s got high name ID and a national network. He’s got a proven track record over years of public service. And he’s consistently won statewide elections, even years that were bad for Democrats. If he gets in, he should have a cleared field.