The September Carolina Forward Poll

A deteriorating economy and a turbulent domestic front appear to be registering with voters across North Carolina. The September edition of the Carolina Forward Poll finds that North Carolina voters are looking for change, spelling potential trouble ahead for many of the state’s political leaders.

Looking Forward to 2026

Democrats start out in a strong position in the 2026 midterm election, as is often the case for the opposition party. In the U.S. Senate race, former governor and likely Democratic nominee Roy Cooper leads his likely Republican opponent Michael Whatley by 7 percentage points, 48% to 41%. Continuing a long-running trend, Cooper is seen favorably by a majority of North Carolina voters, with a 7-point net approval rating. By comparison, 41% of voters have never heard of his Republican opponent, including a full third of Republican base voters.

Governor Josh Stein’s approval ratings continue to soar, with a net +12% approval rating. The Governor demonstrates broad geographic appeal, and interestingly, is significantly more popular across North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District (that is, most of Western North Carolina) than either Donald Trump or the state legislature. The North Carolina state legislature itself is deeply unpopular with voters, with a whopping 19-point net disapproval rating. Independents join Democratic voters with strong disapproval of the state legislature’s job performance.

Democrats also lead on the generic ballots for the U.S. House (45% to 42%) and the North Carolina General Assembly (45% to 41%). While Republican partisan gerrymandering of state and federal legislative districts largely voids the practical impact of such an advantage, it is still a timely reminder that North Carolina’s political leadership is largely unrepresentative of its voters.

                     The State of the State

North Carolina, like much of the United States, remains deeply divided. A plurality of independent voters believe both parties have become more extreme. When faced with questions about important issues facing North Carolina, from the housing crisis to the quality of public schools, the sides are far apart when it comes to identifying root causes of problems.

For example, while Democrats sampled believe the top two challenges facing North Carolina’s public school system are adequate funding/resources and teacher retention, Republicans see the top problems as “political indoctrination” and student performance. Independents are concerned with both adequate funding and resources, and indoctrination, with teacher retention a close third.

Methodology

The full toplines report and crosstabs are available here.

The Carolina Forward Poll was conducted by Change Research, who surveyed 855 likely voters across North Carolina from September 2nd through 8th, 2025. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.