The Spring Meredith poll offers broad insights

Political Partisanship and the Desire for a Viable Third Party

Although political partisans agree on very little, Democrats and Republicans, as well as others, agree that the country is more divided than in the past. Over three-quarters of the respondents indicated that partisanship was worse today than in the past with over 80 percent of Republicans and unaffiliated voters feeling this way and just under two-thirds of Democrats. Almost half of the respondents indicated that they thought political partisanship would be worse in five years, with one-quarter thinking it will be the same.

This polarization is driven by many factors—media fragmentation, politicians who no longer use compromise, and even fundamental beliefs about what is true—but it is noteworthy that this is the highest level of pessimism expressed about the inability of the country to come together since we began asking questions about polarization in 2015. Even recent events such as bi-partisan support for the Ukrainians against Russia do not seem to be affecting North Carolinians’ views about partisanship.

Although there has been a slight increase in the belief that there is more political partisanship, two other findings are worth noting. First, a plurality of North Carolinians (38.1%) feel that the Democratic Party is more extreme than the Republican Party (the reverse was true at the end of the Trump administration).

“Even though Democrats in Washington have not been able to pass most of the Biden administration’s most progressive policies, the perception that Democrats are moving to the left is hurting the party in North Carolina. Just under 30 percent of North Carolinians describe themselves as very or somewhat liberal, so the “liberal” label should hurt Democratic candidates at the ballot box in 2022 and beyond, unless some changes are made,” argues David McLennan.

The increasing perception that the parties are increasingly polarized leads many North Carolinians (55%) to believe that a viable third party is needed to represent the views of citizens. Although third parties do exist in the state—the Libertarian and Constitutional parties, for example—these parties rarely have the visibility or resources to compete against the Democratic and Republican parties.

David McLennan believes “third parties have a difficult pathway to electoral success in North Carolina and in the nation, but an increasing number of North Carolinians, including younger voters, think the major parties are not serving them well.”

Policy issues in 2022

Expanding Medicaid

Over 70 percent of North Carolinians think the state should join the thirty-eight other states in expanding Medicaid and giving health care access to more lower income citizens. Almost 90 percent of Democrats support this expansion, but a majority of Republicans, including those who consider themselves the most conservative also support Medicaid expansion.

“Over the last few years, support for expanding Medicaid has increased in the state. There appears to be some movement in the General Assembly, even among Republicans who have argued against Medicaid expansion in the past, to expand access to health care.” David McLennan states. “Whether the legislators call it an expansion of Medicaid or something else, the public opinion would suggest this to be a popular move.”

Legalizing marijuana

For years bills have been filed in the General Assembly to legalize marijuana in some form—medical or recreational—but these bills have rarely advanced beyond the filing stage. With many states legalizing some or all forms of marijuana use and Congressional leaders, like Chuck Schumer, now talking about some form of marijuana legalization or decriminalization, North Carolina may be on the verge of reconsidering its long­ standing hesitancy on this issue.

Over 60 percent of respondents in our survey favor legalizing medical marijuana use or both medical and recreational marijuana use. Only 13 percent of those surveyed wanted to keep all forms of marijuana illegal. The support for some form of marijuana legalization is broad and cuts across all demographic and political lines.

Abortion laws after the potential overturn of Roe v. Wade

Supreme Court watchers now believe that Roe v. Wade may be overturned in the next few weeks with a decision on Whole Women’s Health v. Jackson. If Roe is overturned and the issue of abortion rights is returned to the states, North Carolina may ultimately pass a law that directs women and health care providers about the legal course of action in this area. Many states around the country have preemptively passed legislation either banning abortion or severely limiting the right of women to have abortions.

Just over half of the North Carolinians surveyed (52.6%) want North Carolina to pass a law keeping the current provisions of Roe or expanding abortion access further. Just under 40 percent of respondents want a law that severely restricts access to abortion or makes it illegal in all circumstances.

This is one of the most partisan findings in the survey. Over three-quarters of Democrats want to keep Roe’s provisions or expand abortion access, while almost 70 percent of Republicans want to restrict access to abortion or make it illegal. Also, over two-thirds of the youngest respondents (18-24 years of age) want to keep Roe’s provisions or expand access to abortions, with older voters being more evenly split between maintaining access to abortion versus restricting or eliminating access.

“The expected decision by the conservative Court to overturn Roe will eventually lead to a very divisive fight over abortion law in North Carolina. Currently, the Republicans cannot overturn a veto from Governor Cooper, but if they pick up a few more seats and get a veto-proof majority, we may see North Carolina go the way of Texas or other states and immediately try to restrict abortion rights,” says David McLennan, even if most of the state’s citizens favor protecting abortion rights.”

“Don’t Say Gay” in NC

Another “culture war” issue dividing North Carolinians is what is popularly referred to as the “Don’t Say Gay” law. This Florida law puts restrictions on public school teachers and employees discussing issues surrounding sexual identity, particularly in the lower grades. It allows parents to sue the school system if they believe teachers and staff members violate this law.

Almost half of those surveyed (47.1%) think that elementary school parents should be able to sue the schools if teachers and staff members discuss issues related to sexual identity. When asked if they supported this kind of law for all grade levels, North Carolinians were evenly split (41.5% support; 41.7% oppose).

Many demographic and political factors influenced support for this type of legislation. A majority of Republicans (almost 60%) support this legislation as it applies to elementary schools with large majorities of self-identified conservatives supporting this. Those identifying as Hispanic/Latinx also supported this type of legislation, as did older respondents.

“Public education will continue to be a political battlefield in 2022 and beyond,” argues David McLennan. “Cultural issues such as discussing sexual identity, banning transgender athletes from participating in school sports, and banning books with certain content are all part of the culture wars being fought in electoral politics. As we saw in the Virginia governor’s race last year, Republicans can be very successful in appealing to parental rights on a host of educational topics.”

Constitutional limits on older candidates

With the possibility of two octogenarians—Joe Biden and Donald Trump—being the major party nominees for their respective parties in 2024 and the concerns raised by some about having a sitting president in his eighties, we decided to ask North Carolinians if they thought the Constitution should be amended to put an upper age limit on federal elected officials (e.g., president and members of Congress). Over three-quarters of those surveyed thought an upper limit was advisable. Support for an upper limit was universal with political partisans, people with all levels of educational attainment, and, most interestingly, respondents across all age categories—young to old—supporting a maximum age for serving.