Thoughts on Tilllis' vulnerability
Published 10:57 a.m. Thursday
I want to talk about Thom Tillis’s political vulnerability. Tillis has had a tenuous hold on his seat ever since he was elected, and he hasn’t solidified his position. A strong Democrat should be able to end his political career next year. But that hasn’t happened yet. What we have now is the general knowledge that he’s politically weak. In this post, I want to explore that dynamic.
Tillis’s vulnerability is inarguable. His approval ratings are gory, like a cheap horror movie. According to Carolina Journal’s polling, only 44% of Republicans approve of Tillis. Tillis is 37 points underwater with independents. That toxic status should trigger hair-raising alarm bells for the man from Cornelius because it was independent voters, mostly in the Charlotte suburbs, who allowed him to escape defeat by Cal Cunningham in 2020.
But I wouldn’t conclude that Tillis will be a pushover. Democrats have carried that assumption into both of his Senate races and ended bitterly disappointed. Some critics say that he benefited from brute good luck, and there’s that truth to that. But even adjusting for his good fortune, he’s still managed to win two Senate elections in a tough state. It’s hard to believe that his political skills didn’t play at least some role in that success.
Tillis’s weaknesses are clear: He’s unpopular and has a weak political base. But for all his particular shortcomings, Tillis has a major advantage in being a conservative Republican. Most of the time, North Carolina elects socially conservative, limited-government Senators. In the conservative post-Jesse Helms era, Republicans have won 14 out of 18 Senate races in our state. And the conservative preference extended backward to before the rise of NC Republicans. In the segregationist, Solid South era, North Carolina elected very conservative Democrats. Josiah Bailey was one of the leading conservatives of the New Deal era and a major irritation for President Franklin Roosevelt. Later, Sam Ervin was so racially conservative that Terry Sanford called him a “constitutional racist.”
In Senate races, we tend to be a conservative state.
That strengthens Tillis. But he’s still deeply vulnerable because he is weaker than the typical Republican. He is deeply unpopular and cannot rely upon any base of diehard supporters to vote for him despite his generally poor standing. Consider a comparison to another unloved Republican, Jesse Helms. Helms and Tillis were both disliked by many and had reputations as mean people. But Helms had the “Jessecrats”—thousands of mostly racist white Democrats who ardently supported him for 30 years. Entranced by Helms’s racist advertising, these people saved him in his most perilous elections. The sinister magic was particularly powerful when Helms ran against racial liberals and the African American mayor Harvey Gantt.
Tillis, lacking Helms’s potent personality and killer instincts, has no comparable base. No one will fight to salvage his political career.
Tillis’s vulnerability is inarguable. His approval ratings are gory, like a cheap horror movie. According to Carolina Journal’s polling, only 44% of Republicans approve of Tillis. Tillis is 37 points underwater with independents. That toxic status should trigger hair-raising alarm bells for the man from Cornelius because it was independent voters, mostly in the Charlotte suburbs, who allowed him to escape defeat by Cal Cunningham in 2020.
But I wouldn’t conclude that Tillis will be a pushover. Democrats have carried that assumption into both of his Senate races and ended bitterly disappointed. Some critics say that he benefited from brute good luck, and there’s that truth to that. But even adjusting for his good fortune, he’s still managed to win two Senate elections in a tough state. It’s hard to believe that his political skills didn’t play at least some role in that success.
Tillis’s weaknesses are clear: He’s unpopular and has a weak political base. But for all his particular shortcomings, Tillis has a major advantage in being a conservative Republican. Most of the time, North Carolina elects socially conservative, limited-government Senators. In the conservative post-Jesse Helms era, Republicans have won 14 out of 18 Senate races in our state. And the conservative preference extended backward to before the rise of NC Republicans. In the segregationist, Solid South era, North Carolina elected very conservative Democrats. Josiah Bailey was one of the leading conservatives of the New Deal era and a major irritation for President Franklin Roosevelt. Later, Sam Ervin was so racially conservative that Terry Sanford called him a “constitutional racist.”
In Senate races, we tend to be a conservative state.
That strengthens Tillis. But he’s still deeply vulnerable because he is weaker than the typical Republican. He is deeply unpopular and cannot rely upon any base of diehard supporters to vote for him despite his generally poor standing. Consider a comparison to another unloved Republican, Jesse Helms. Helms and Tillis were both disliked by many and had reputations as mean people. But Helms had the “Jessecrats”—thousands of mostly racist white Democrats who ardently supported him for 30 years. Entranced by Helms’s racist advertising, these people saved him in his most perilous elections. The sinister magic was particularly powerful when Helms ran against racial liberals and the African American mayor Harvey Gantt.
Tillis, lacking Helms’s potent personality and killer instincts, has no comparable base. No one will fight to salvage his political career.
Tillis’s subtle, frustrating political resilience has often been aided by the political environment. We don’t yet know whether this advantage will recur for him. But the early signs are that his vulnerabilities will be more exposed this time. Trump is actually underwater in North Carolina—and Tillis will not be able to count on Charlotte suburbanites to compensate for his master’s toxicity. The Tillis model—be acceptable, but barely—will be directly tested. His chronic vulnerability may undo him at last.
