Top Tillis consultant predicts $1 billion 'knock-down, drag-out' in 2026

If he gets in the race, former Gov. Roy Cooper should expect a bruising Senate campaign with as much as $1 billion spent, a top consultant for U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis says.

That would make North Carolina’s 2026 contest by far the most expensive U.S. Senate race of all time. And it would likely be one of the nastiest races in the state’s history, as well.

“Cooper's never been through a very contentious, knock-down, drag-out,” Republican consultant Paul Shumaker said on the latest edition of the Tying It Together podcast from Spectrum News.

He said Cooper will likely face a lot of pressure to run, but he might not be ready for a national race. Governor’s races are “totally different” from federal ones, Shumaker said — more ideological than pragmatic.

“You're going to be put under a greater microscope than you ever have been before,” Shumaker said of Cooper. “Does he want to go back and engage in that and really experience what a national profile race is going to be like?”

Without Cooper in the race, Shumaker predicted between a combined $600 million and $750 million would be spent on the North Carolina seat. With Cooper in the race, that number jumps to between $850 million and $1 billion.

In 2020, roughly $300 million was spent on Tillis’s race against Cal Cunningham, the most expensive in the nation at that time.

A Helms-Hunt part II?

North Carolina is no stranger to divisive U.S. Senate races, and a Tillis-Cooper matchup could very well go the same way as the Jesse Helms-Jim Hunt race did in 1984.

Hunt was an extraordinarily popular two-term governor finishing his second term. He’d even go on to win two more terms as governor. But in a national race, voters preferred Helms’s ideology and support for President Ronald Reagan — and lots of money on attack ads put the Republican over the top.

There are so many similarities here. Cooper is a popular two-term governor who would be trying to take a similar jump. Like Hunt, Cooper is fairly undefined in his stances on national issues and would be susceptible to a Helms-style “Where do you stand, Jim?” attack.

There are so many other Helms ads that Tillis could essentially copy-and-paste, as well. Cooper is on the record again and again opposing Trump. Helms hit Hunt repeatedly on his criticism of Reagan. Cooper is popular among New York donors, as was Hunt.

Cooper would also be vulnerable to his party’s leftward march. While Cooper could insulate himself from national politics in his runs for governor, there would be no such luck in a Senate race.

Andew Dunn writes Longleaf Politics