Trump ‘26 = Nixon ‘74

Donald Trump is the best thing to happen to the Democratic Party since Richard Nixon.

Nixon sank all Republicans in 1974, and Trump is dragging them under this year

It wasn’t just Watergate then; it was years of inflation, economic stagnation and rising gas prices, plus the fact that the President was a crook and a vengeful, would-be dictator.

Sound familiar?

We just did two polls that show how far Trump has fallen in North Carolina - and how that hurts Michael Whatley and Republicans down the ballot.

One, done the last week of September, polled 1,154 voters who are registered Unaffiliated. We did that deep dive because nearly 40% of voters in the state are Unaffiliated. I’ll write more about them soon.

The other poll, done the same time, was of 929 voters in the 50 most rural counties. This is a reprise of a rural poll we did in August 2025; we wanted to see what has happened since then in the most pro-Trump places.

(We didn’t poll all voters; plenty of polls do that. We wanted a closer look at these two groups.)

Stephen Clermont of Change Research in Washington conducted the polls, and here is his overview:

· “In both polls, Roy Cooper does 13-14 points better than Kamala Harris did in 2024.

· “In the rural counties, Trump went from 56% approve-42%% disapprove in August 2025 to 48% approve-50% disapprove in this poll.” (That’s a 16-point swing against him - where he’s strongest.)

· “In the independents poll, he is at 29% favorable - 63% unfavorable and 33% approve - 65% disapprove.

· “For both the Senate race and the state legislative races, Democrats are well positioned this year.”

Among Unaffiliateds, Cooper leads Whatley 50-35%. In the rural counties - where Trump beat Harris 58-37% in 2024 - Whatley leads Cooper by only 48-40%.

No wonder national Republican super PACS cut Whatley loose and he paused his ads.

In the generic state legislative matchup, Democrats lead Republicans 46-33% with Unaffiliateds.

No wonder Republican legislators burned up gas rushing back to Raleigh to pause the gas tax, though that will make little difference at the polls.

This picture of North Carolina voters less than four weeks before Election Day is all because of Trump.

The more he does to fire up his base - holding red-meat red-state rallies, inviting Iran to bomb L.A. and San Diego, saying “we’re going to shove it up their (Democrats’) ass” - the more he antagonizes swing voters and fires up anti-Trump voters.

Democrats shouldn’t hate on all that. It’s a gift to us.

And we shouldn’t get cocky about 2028: “The Democratic Party has not really done anything to improve,” Stephen said.

Among Unaffiliateds, Democrats get a 25% favorable - 57% unfavorable rating. Stephen said, “We are well-positioned for 2026 but not 2028.”

His bottom line: “The country has moved aggressively anti-Trump. That is our opportunity. The challenge will be in how we govern differently if/when we win in November.”

You can see the Unaffiliated poll here and the rural poll here, along with details about methodology and margin of error. Both polls were commissioned and paid for by my friend Sam Hunt of Burlington, former state legislator and Secretary of Transportation under Governor Jim Hunt (no relation).

Stay tuned for more on both polls.

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