Trump’s support skews NC voters’ take on tariffs

More North Carolina voters oppose tariffs than support them, according to the latest Carolina Journal Poll. The same poll shows three out of every four likely voters in the Tar Heel State agree tariffs will raise prices for consumers.

The numbers almost certainly would look even worse for tariff supporters without President Donald Trump’s steadfast support of the controversial policy.

Four questions from the May 11-13 poll focused directly on tariffs. In each case, Republicans and Democrats split clearly in their answers. Independent voters tended to align more closely with Democrats in each case.

Pollsters asked 614 likely North Carolina general election voters to choose between two basic views of Trump’s tariff proposals. A plurality (48.5%) selected “Tariffs raise prices and hurt businesses that rely on imported goods and raw materials.” That answer topped the 40.7% who answered “Tariffs are necessary to protect American industries and reduce dependence on foreign countries.”

Republicans (81%) overwhelmingly backed the positive view of tariffs, while Democrats (80%) clearly favored the negative assessment. Among independents, the anti-tariff answer won by a 25-point margin, with 56% focusing on tariffs’ downside.

Asked how likely it is “that higher tariffs on imported goods will result in you paying more for the products you buy,” 75% of the overall sample answered likely. Only 19% answered unlikely. The likely answer scored much higher among Democrats (88%) and independents (80%) than Republicans (59%). Roughly one-third (34%) of Republicans considered higher prices an unlikely outcome.

More than half of those surveyed (52%) believe it’s likely that “higher tariffs on imported goods will lead to more manufacturing jobs being created in the United States.” That answer topped the 44% who labeled growth in manufacturing jobs unlikely.

That’s one piece of polling data likely to please tariff supporters. Yet the majority support came almost entirely from the 85% of Republicans who chose the “likely” option. Most Democrats (69%) considered growth in manufacturing jobs unlikely. A majority of independents (51%) also answered “unlikely.”

Pollsters asked voters “How long of a disruption to the US economy would you be willing to accept in order for the US to realize any economic benefits from higher tariffs?”

The most popular answer (41%) was “I do not believe there will be any benefit from tariffs.” Democrats (70%) and independents (47%) chose that option above all others. The most popular answer for Republicans (33%) was a willingness to tolerate two to three years of disruptions in return for tariffs’ promised benefits.

A fifth poll question shed more light on North Carolina voters’ assessment of tariffs. “If a policy goal is to generate more manufacturing jobs in the United States, which one of the following do you think would be most effective?” Voters could choose one answer.

The most popular (26%) among four options was “The government should not interfere in selecting which industries grow.” Close behind that answer were “rolling back government regulations (red tape)” at 25% and “lowering taxes on manufacturers” at 23%. Ranking fourth among the four options, with just 10% support: “imposing tariffs on imported goods.”

Even among Republicans, who expressed more favorable views of tariffs, the most popular option for boosting manufacturing jobs involved reducing businesses’ regulatory burden (41%). Tariffs appeared to be no one’s first choice for boosting the manufacturing sector.

The Carolina Journal Poll pegged Trump’s favorability at 46% among likely North Carolina voters, with 51% registering an unfavorable view. He secures 86% support from fellow Republicans, while 84% of Democrats hold an unfavorable view. Among independents, Trump is 19 points underwater, with 58% holding an unfavorable view and 39% answering “favorable.”

It would be unwise to attempt to separate voters’ assessments of tariffs completely from their attitudes about Trump. Many of the president’s supporters likely back tariffs because they believe in him. On the flip side, vehement opposition among Democrats undoubtedly stems at least in part from Trump’s full-throated support.

A clear view of the public’s unbiased take on tariffs is unlikely to emerge during this presidential administration.

Yet independents’ poll answers offer useful clues. Just 31% of them label tariffs “necessary,” 51% think tariffs are unlikely to boost manufacturing jobs, and 80% believe tariffs will raise prices they pay for the products they want.

That’s not a great base of support among voters who can swing elections from one major party to the other in a closely divided state like North Carolina. Advocates and critics of tariffs ought to keep those numbers in mind in the weeks and months ahead.

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation.