Unaffiliated voters’ political power depends on where they live

As North Carolina wraps up its second week of mail voting ahead of the Nov. 3 election, political observers are watching more than how many ballots are coming back. They’re watching where those ballots are coming from.

All 170 seats in the General Assembly — 120 in the House and 50 in the Senate — are on the ballot this year. But the real battlefield is much smaller. The Civitas Partisan Index identifies just 28 districts most likely to be competitive: 22 House seats and six Senate seats. Those races could determine how state government operates for the next two years. The State Board of Elections confirms the legislative seats and election schedule.

Analysis from Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity at the John Locke Foundation and CarolinaElections.com reports 61,312 absentee-ballot requests so far, compared with 85,604 at the same point in 2022. Some may read that decline as a sign of lower voter enthusiasm. Jackson suggests that our pandemic-era voting habits are waning and more North Carolinians plan to go back to voting early in person or on Election Day.

At the same time, unaffiliated voter registration has continued to grow. They account for roughly 40% of accepted absentee ballots so far, up from 28.8% at the same point in 2022. However, “unaffiliated” does not necessarily mean centrist or undecided. These voters do not vote as a bloc.

That distinction matters most in those 28 key districts. Candidates competing there must reach voters whose political views may not fit neatly beneath a party label. The winners there may have party affiliations, but that won’t necessarily predict how they will vote.

Republicans have controlled both chambers of the General Assembly since 2011, after Democrats had dominated the legislature for more than a century. This year, a shift of just a few seats will have a significant impact on the governing margin.

WHY THE MARGIN MATTERS

The margins can impact policies like school choice, budget transparency, low taxes, and the regulatory environment of our state. A legislative majority elects chamber leaders and committee chairs. It decides which proposals receive hearings and debate, and it controls the calendar often determining the fate of legislation before a final vote is ever taken.

The majority party also writes the state budget and makes decisions that affect every taxpayer, parent, business owner and public employee in North Carolina: tax rates, public salaries, incentives, education spending and infrastructure.

A simple majority allows a party to organize each chamber and send legislation to the governor. A three-fifths vote of members present and voting is required in each chamber to override a gubernatorial veto. Proposed constitutional amendments require the approval of three-fifths of the full membership of each chamber before going to voters. Those thresholds are established in the North Carolina Constitution.

That is why one or two seats can matter so much, and turnout is critical for every party. A narrow shift can alter veto strategy, reshape budget negotiations, change attendance calculations and give individual legislators considerably more leverage.

POLITICAL POWER IS LOCAL

Unaffiliated voters may be growing statewide, but their true influence will be concentrated in a relatively small number of communities. In those closely divided districts, they could help determine who writes the budget, which bills reach the governor’s desk and how policy is shaped for people across North Carolina.

All politics may be local. In 2026, so is the balance of power.

Donna King serves as editor in chief for the Carolina Journal and Executive Vice President of the John Locke Foundation