Vetoes could end Stein’s political honeymoon

Gov. Josh Stein has enjoyed an enviable first six months in office.

His poll numbers have been solid. His administration has avoided major scandals. Even leaders of the Republican-controlled General Assembly have offered positive comments about working with the new Democrat in the Executive Mansion.

Yet June 20 might have marked the beginning of a shift in Stein’s fortunes. On that day, he decided to use his veto stamp for the first time. Partisans and pundits will watch with interest as the public reacts to Stein’s first clear opposition to GOP legislative priorities.

The new governor entered office on a high note. He secured nearly 55% support and an 800,000-vote victory margin in the November election. (Predecessor Roy Cooper, long considered North Carolina’s most popular Democrat, won re-election in 2020 with less than 52% support and a victory margin under 250,000 votes.)

Stein’s public support has remained strong, with his largest challenge involving state government’s response to Hurricane Helene’s devastation in western North Carolina.

A Carolina Journal Poll conducted May 11-13 pegged Stein’s favorability at 48%, twice as high as the 24% who viewed him unfavorably. The same poll showed 46% favorability for President Donald Trump, with 51% registering unfavorable views of the 47th president.

It’s no surprise that Democrats (69%) favored the new governor most, but 55% of independents and even 23% of Republicans gave him high marks.

That was before the new governor took direct action against Republican lawmakers.

Stein vetoed three bills on June 20. Two focused on the state’s role in immigration enforcement. The third would have removed state barriers for concealed handguns.

Of House Bill 318, Stein said, “I support the bill’s efforts to require sheriffs to contact federal immigration authorities about people in their custody charged with sexual battery, armed robbery, arson, assault on public officials and court personnel, and other dangerous crimes.” Yet “I cannot sign this bill because it would require sheriffs to unconstitutionally detain people for up to 48 hours after they would otherwise be released.”

The governor argued that Senate Bill 153 would “make us less safe.”

“At a time when our law enforcement is already stretched thin, this bill takes state law enforcement officers away from their existing state duties and forces them to act as federal immigration agents,” Stein explained.

The governor rejected Senate Bill 50’s elimination of training requirements for concealed carry permits and a provision lowering the legal concealed-carry age from 21 to 18. “Authorizing teenagers to carry a concealed weapon with no training whatsoever is dangerous,” Stein argued. “The bill would also make the job of a law enforcement officer more difficult and less safe.”

Legislative leaders responded.

“Governor Stein has made one thing clear today: He stands with criminal illegal aliens and the most radical elements of his party’s base over the safety and security of North Carolinians,” said House Speaker Destin Hall, R-Caldwell.

“Today, Gov. Stein proved where his allegiances are,” added Senate Leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham. “He’d rather prioritize his far-left donors and their dangerous open-border policies over the citizens of North Carolina who are desperately pleading for us to put an end to the illegal immigration crisis.”

Berger turned to the gun bill. “Law-abiding North Carolinians shouldn’t have to jump through hoops to effectively exercise their Second Amendment rights,” he said. “It’s past time for us to join the majority of states that recognize Constitutional Carry.”

Neither the governor’s vetoes nor state legislative leaders’ responses should shock us.

No one would characterize Stein as a Republican in Democrats’ clothing. The governor’s previous statements and actions suggested general alignment with his party’s stances on immigration and guns.

Yet the June 20 vetoes marked the first instance when Stein acted as governor in a way that openly opposed GOP legislative priorities. Stein vetoed a fourth bill Friday. More vetoes appear likely.

What remains unclear is how partisan conflicts between Stein and the General Assembly will affect public perception of the new governor. His support among GOP voters is likely to drop to some extent. Meanwhile, picking fights with Republicans might boost his standing with his Democratic base.

The key to the governor’s political future could be the impact of public partisan battles on the 55% of independents who viewed Stein favorably as recently as a month ago. If the governor generally sides with public opinion when choosing his political fights, he’s likely to maintain much of that support.

But if Stein sticks with Democratic priorities even when those stances run counter to public opinion, his political honeymoon certainly will end.

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation.