Voter turnout in the May 6th primary

by John Frank, Under the Dome, April 10, 2014.

One of the key questions for the May 6 primary is voter turnout.

It is likely to play a role in deciding the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. The conventional wisdom among political observers goes like this: The three main candidates all need to turnout their base – for Greg Brannon, the tea party, for Mark Harris, evangelical voters, for Thom Tillis, Chamber of Commerce Republicans. Whoever does the best job, and gets a boost from the general GOP electorate, will have a good showing.

In the 2010 primary election, in which a Democratic Senate primary appeared on the ballot, turnout hit 14 percent of registered voters. In 2002 primary election, in which contested Democratic and Republican primaries for Senate were at stake, 21 percent of voters came to the polls. This year, the race – particularly to the 40 percent mark for an outright win – means even a few thousand more votes may matter.

Michael Bitzer, a political analyst at Catawba College, looked at the primary turnout in a post for WFAE radio in Charlotte. He writes:

“Over the past six mid-term elections, North Carolina generally had a higher primary voter turnout both in voting age population and among registered voters than the national averages. ...

“In another key aspect of primary electorates, the age of voters casting ballots is decidedly older among partisans: only 11% of the ballots coming from registered Democrats were from voters under the age of 40, while 15% of the ballots coming from registered Republicans were under 40.”

His conclusion: “So for the coming May election, we will most likely see electorates that are skewed to the partisan side, to voters over the age of 40, and (dependent on the party election) either a very white electorate or one that is very racially diverse.” Read the full post here.

Thomas Mills, a Democratic strategist and blogger, suggests turnout matters most for Tillis. He writes:

“First, he needs a large turnout. Tillis will have an advantage on the airwaves and can reach a broader audience. A larger turnout will mitigate the impact of the more narrowly focused grassroots operations that FreedomWorks is running for Greg Brannon and the old Christian Coalition is likely preparing for Mark Harris.

“Second, Tillis needs a larger turnout among less ideological unaffiliated voters. In recent years, unaffiliated voters have been increasingly involved in primaries. Tillis needs to tap into those less partisan voters who are not happy with Obama and, by extension, Hagan and offer himself an alternative. He could certainly benefit from a field operation.” Read more here.