Wartime President

I’m not really a foreign policy guy but I can’t help commenting on what is happening right now. Donald Trump bombed Iranian nuclear sites, essentially claiming that he wiped out the country’s nuclear program. Experts aren’t so sure, but he’s got a lot of people cheering him on and lot of people claiming he’s a war criminal.

I’m less certain about any of it. I don’t have an ethical problem with bombing Iran. The regime there has been brutal to their own people and has supported Islamic terrorist groups throughout the region. They propped up Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza, all groups that rely on brutal suppression to hold power and influence. They oppose basic human rights and they’ve also killed a lot of Americans over the years. I don’t think Iran should ever have a nuclear bomb.

I do have a problem getting into another extended engagement in the Middle East. The people who are cheering Trump on have been wanting to bomb Iran for more than twenty years—some more than forty years. They believe that Trump has largely ended the Iranian nuclear program and has taken the first step toward a lasting peace in the region. They believe hard power is the only way to deal with states like Iran. Count me skeptical.

Trump’s declaration of victory brings back memories of George W. Bush’s much mocked “Mission Accomplished” moment. Sure, they toppled Saddam Hussein in a few months, but the war was just beginning, not ending. The next decade was brutal, especially for the Iraqi people. Sunni and Shia militias attacked mosques and massacred civilians. The ISIS terrorist organization brutalized the population in parts of the country before spreading throughout the region. We’re still dealing with the fallout of that mess and one unintended consequence of the Iraq debacle was a strengthened Iran. Iraq went from a powerful antagonist on Iran’s border to a failed state where the Mullahs and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard could meddle freely and foment regional unrest.

The hard power people are always looking for simple, if deadly, solutions to extremely complex situations. They want to take out one group or target and hope that will make everything right. Instead, it usually leads to civil war, regional instability, and anarchy. At least that’s what has happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya.

This time, I hope they are right. I hope one U.S. bombing raid over Iran will end the country’s nuclear ambitions for a generation or more. I hope the government’s humiliation will lead to regime change that ushers in a new, less belligerent government, but it sure sounds like a fairy tale.

I fear we’re about to embark on a very long, very dangerous period of whack-a-mole, bombing Iran every few months in an attempt to blow up moving stockpiles of enriched Uranium or hidden centrifuges. Some leaders in Iran will now believe that building a nuclear bomb is essential to their very survival and several rogue countries might be more willing to help them now than before the strikes.

Diplomacy is the hard road. It takes never ending negotiations that leave all sides perpetually unhappy. Constant accusations of cheating or bad faith, often from outside sources, add stress and uncertainty. Success relies on trust among people who inherently distrust each other. It also demands participants understand the interests and perspectives of the people on the other side of the table, even if they vehemently disagree with the opposing world views. Negotiations end in messy compromise with little closure and the next negotiation over the same concerns is always just around the corner.

I think Trump got played by Netanyahu, but he’s an easy mark. Trump sees every negotiation as a deal with a winner and a loser and when it’s over, it’s over. He just wants the deal to be done so he can move on to the next one. That’s not how the world works, but Trump’s too old to learn new lessons and he sees the world through the lens of the New York real estate business.

He thought he could end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine on Day One through bluster and threats. He was convinced that he could end the Israel-Iran conflict with a single bombing campaign. The wars in Gaza and Ukraine are still raging. I suspect the one between Israel and Iran is just getting started. Mission Accomplished?