We already have a third party

Lately I’ve been thinking about why political pundits’ predictions were so often wrong last November. The reason is that they paid too much attention to the wrong cohort.

Political cohorts are groups of people banded together with each group having an issue(s) to be resolved, or at least addressed, by government. There are three significant cohorts in North Carolina. Democrats (D), Republicans (R), and Independents (I). In North Carolina, the 2020 election emphasized the following political realities in our state. 

The Democratic Cohort seems to want abortion, increased taxes on the wealthy, free college, gender freedom, non-contributing social support, and a living constitution…..their list goes on. There are not enough registered Democrats to elect Democratic candidates in our general elections.

The Republican Cohort seems to want life-from-conception, fewer taxes, earned higher education, biological gender, personal responsibility, and constitutional originalism…..their list goes on. There are not enough registered Republicans to elect Republican candidates in our general elections.

The Independent cohort has no comfortable place to go, has no set agenda, and appears to be all over the political spectrum which is why they have become the critical political cohort in North Carolina. They are the reason that our pre-election polls are so flawed. Those polls ask biased questions that portend their answers. Independents either don’t participate, answer falsely or not at all. Some Independents lean Democratic. Some Independents lean Republican. However, about five-to-eight percent of registered Independents remain undecided about candidates’ position on specific North Carolina issues until election day. Those Independents determine election outcomes in our state and are not predictable.

Why do we have a Democratic Governor and a Republican Lieutenant Governor? A Democrat as Secretary of State and a Republican Commissioner of Agriculture? A State Auditor who is a Democrat and a Republican State Treasurer? The easy answer is that NC Independent swing voters vote for proven competency and on issues important to North Carolinians. 

The easy answer is also the practical answer. Most of our state-wide elected Council of State incumbents have proven themselves within their area of responsibility and party affiliation is secondary. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D) was the first woman elected to state-wide office. She has served without scandal since 1996, and is respected for her quiet achievements over 6 four-year terms. Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler (R) makes sure that "Goodness Grows in North Carolina," provides food snd drug protection, is responsible for our State Fair, and oversees our research stations. He is required by law to be a farmer and has served four terms. State Auditor Beth Wood (D) is the state’s CPA and her job is to make sure our money is handled, and spent, properly. She is tenacious, fearless and fair. The people love her, she is a great dancer, and she has served three terms. State Treasurer Dale Folwell (R) is a CPA who manages our state’s retirement funds, provides assistance to local governments, and is our states’ banker. He has taken on hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and Wall Street as a champion for our public employees. He rides a motorcycle all over the state and won a second term. Insurance Commissioner Mike Causey (R) continues to keep our insurance premiums fair, and our public fire departments and our rural volunteer departments, as modern as possible. Attorney General Josh Stein (D) made a name for himself in the North Carolina Senate before he ran to be the leader of our Justice Department. This is a job that guarantees partisanship and complaints, and AG Stein has handled all with style and grace. 
Similar stories can be attached to each of our Council of State re-elected incumbents; they are solid citizens, excellent representatives for our state, know their responsibilities, come to work and do their jobs well. At the ballot box they were appreciated and their re-election had less to do with their party affiliation than their demonstrated competency. First term members of our Council of State need to keep this in mind.

The current Democratic cohort spin is that Republicans are leaving their party but a question is, how many are registering Independent? How soon will registered Independents become the majority political cohort in the state? What’s important to remember is that the critical 5-8% of registered Independents will keep North Carolina a purple state for the next decade. 

We do not need another political party in North Carolina. We already have one. Independents just need to adopt a simple platform with a couple planks that can change our state and lead the nation.