We're being bombarded by U.S. Senate ads
Published April 17, 2014
by Joe Killian, Greensboro News-Record, April 17, 2014.
With the May 6 primary election about two weeks away, voters are being bombarded with appeals by the candidates and well-heeled political groups from outside North Carolina.
Some experts say they’re surprised it has taken this long for one of the state’s most hotly contested GOP primaries — the battle for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan — to lead to an all-out advertising war.
“I really would have expected to see it before now,” said Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science and history at Catawba College. “Typically, when the first of the year comes along, that’s when the momentum starts to build. It’s been fairly quiet so far, with the exception of ads by outside money.”
There has been plenty of that. For months, such groups as the conservative Americans for Prosperity and liberal Senate Majority PAC have been sparring in the Senate race. Americans for Prosperity has been slamming Hagan’s support of the Affordable Care Act.
Senate Majority PAC has gone after the conservative millionaire Koch brothers, who helped found Americans for Prosperity and have backed Tea Party groups and candidates. Senate Majority PAC has also targeted N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis, the apparent front-runner in the Republican primary.
Bitzer said surrogate groups on the left and the right are spending millions to soften up presumed opponents in the general election — in the Senate campaign, Hagan and Tillis — while also stoking ideological fires designed to turn out each party’s base.
“For conservatives, it’s Obamacare. That’s the issue they’re concentrating on, and we’ll see that continue throughout the general election. They’ve put a lot of money into cementing the narrative on it,” Bitzer said.
“For Hagan, she appears to be trying to make the Koch brothers her bogeymen. I don’t know how effective that’s going to be, because most people have no idea who they are. But it could fire up her base.”
With broader name recognition and having raised more money, Tillis thus far has concentrated his TV advertising on contrasts with Hagan. And, because of that, most of the spots would appear to be geared for the general election, virtually ignoring the seven other Republicans in the primary.
Ads for Dr. Greg Brannon, who trails Tillis from just a few points to double digits in most polls, mostly have been through direct mail and online. They’ve positioned him to the political right of Tillis, concentrating on his Christianity and career as a pro-life OB-GYN and have touted endorsements from such Tea Party figures as Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) and conservative pundit Glenn Beck.
Ken Fernandez, an assistant professor of political science at Elon University and director of the Elon Poll, said the advertising will intensify.
“In a primary, even getting a small increase in turnout can be very effective,” Fernandez said.
If no GOP candidate can take more than 40 percent of the vote in the primary, there will be a high-stakes runoff in July to set up a general election that could prove a key battleground in the Republicans’ effort to take over the Senate.
“But at a certain point you get to a saturation point with advertising,” Fernandez said. “Even if you double and triple the money coming in, there’s a finite amount of TV ad time you can buy, and people just start to tune it out.
“Once people have already made up their mind, the advertising is just a reminder that there’s an election coming and to get out there and vote.”
