A poll about Trump

Donald Trump’s spokesman said: The Republican Party is Trump’s Party. I wondered, Truth? Or bluster? Later, talking with John Bolton, catching up, we talked about the same question. That led to a poll – one number leaped out: Trump’s ‘Favorable/Unfavorable’ rating with Republicans.

When a candidate’s popularity begins to wane it’s seldom like a titanic crash – it’s more like watching a row of dominoes fall: People who once said ‘He’s great’ roll downhill saying ‘He’s okay;’ people who used to shrug ‘He’s okay’ roll downhill saying ‘I no longer like him.’ That’s what’s happening to Donald Trump – here’re his poll numbers:

Republican Voters

                                                                                 October, 2020                 April, 2021                       +/-                    

Very Favorable to Trump                                                   77                                58                             -19
Somewhat Favorable to Trump                                         15                                27                             +12
Unfavorable to Trump                                                          6                                13                               +7                                                 

 Trump’s ‘base’ – Very Favorable Republicans who say He’s great – dropped by 19 points, from 77% to 58% – a 25% drop.

When I told a friend about that drop he shrugged, What difference does that make? 

You can see the difference in how Republicans would vote in the 2024 Republican Presidential primary: Very Favorables vote for Trump, Somewhat Favorables and Unfavorables don’t. Here’re those poll numbers:

Republicans and Independents who vote in Republican primaries

                                                                          Very Favorable to Trump     Somewhat Favorable     Unfavorable to Trump  

Vote Trump                                                                          70                                      32                                        4                     Vote Another candidate/undecided                                  30                                      68                                      96                                                                                                                                                              

Trump wins his ‘Very Favorable’ by 40 points – loses his ‘Somewhat Favorables’ (by 36 points) and his ‘Unfavorables.’

When you add all those numbers together, combining them, 44% of the primary voters said they’d vote for Trump – but 56% didn’t. And that’s not set in stone. Trump may decline more. Or rebound.

When John Bolton gave 400 pages of poll data and crosstabs to reporters, Trump’s spokesman erupted: Name-calling, finger-pointing, Jason Miller took to Twitter; he also told reporters 82% of the Republicans would support Trump in the 2024 primary – I looked at the poll he retweeted: They’d asked an up or down question, not mentioning other candidates, or offering voters choices, just saying, ‘Would you support or oppose Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024?’ But two questions later, in the same poll, they did ask a standard ballot question that included Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Ted Cruz, etc. – and the world changed: 55% said they’d vote for Trump, 45% did not vote for Trump. Trump’s support fell from 82% to 55% – a 27-point drop.

There’re many numbers in John Bolton’s poll that tell a story, some good for Trump, some bad. You can see Trump’s popularity compared to Joe Biden’s, what happens to a candidate Trump opposes in a Republican primary, cracks in Trump’s ideological base, how 55% of the ‘Very Conservative’ voters don’t see Donald Trump as very conservative.

And each story sheds light on the question Does Trump rule the Republican Party?