Another poll: Cooper –BY EIGHTEEN ????

The run-up to this U.S. Senate race is starting to evoke comparisons to dropping a kitten into a fenced-in yard full of hungry pit-bulls. It’s just a matter of time before things get just too horrifying to watch.

There has been polling on a Roy Cooper-Michael Whatley race for the US Senate since last July.  As we’ve reported to you, there is not a single poll to be found giving Whatley the Republican any sort of lead over Cooper the Democrat. Not one. 

The latest comes from a group called Healthier United.  It’s a PAC focusing on health care related issues — as you might expect.

Curiously, they decided to poll voters on the upcoming US Senate race with the help of consultants Morgan Jackson and Paul Shumaker.  Many of you may recognize Jackson as Roy Cooper‘s longtime top political adviser.  Many of you may also recognize Shumaker as a top strategist for the NCGOP establishment and, specifically, outgoing senator Thom Tillis. (Whatley has close ties to Thom Tillis and his political team.  Many credit Tillis with Whatley’s intro into and rise through the political ranks.) So, interestingly, the poll was conducted by two guys who each are tied to at least one major candidate in the race.

The poll for Healthier United, conducted March 8-9 via telephone, gives Cooper 50 percent of the vote to 32 percent for Whatley.  Libertarian Shannon Bray gets 4 percent, while 14 percent are Undecided.

The pollsters appear to contradict themselves in the explanation of methodology on slide 3 of the poll results presentation.

The first sentence denotes “800 registered voters living in North Carolina …”.   The last sentence references “the poll of 800 likely general election voters.”

Polling of likely voters tends to have more credibility than those based on registered voters. Registered voters don’t always go to the polls and vote.

I’m not sure which group we’re actually dealing with here.

It’s really hard to holler about political bias here. We’ve seen a Democrat-aligned pollster deliver a three-point spread for Cooper with a 4 point margin of error.  THAT is too close for comfort.  But then we see very NCGOP-friendly Carolina Journalproducing polls showing Whatley down four to eight points. Neither pollster was showing much love to their alleged champion.

Shumaker has long professional ties to Whatley’s mentor, Thom Tillis.  Shumaker also had a great working relationship with NCGOP HQ while Whatley was state party chairman.

It would be nice to see a credible poll giving Whatley some kind of lead here.  Heck, even Mark Robinson managed to see a few polls giving him a lead over Josh Stein.  (Too bad that none of them were in or near November.) 

The real worrisome part here is how a big Cooper win could affect the NCGOP down-ticket.  A big Cooper win amplified by heightened Democrat enthusiasm could cost the GOP some important judicial seats, legislative majorities, and even a couple of congressional seats.

It’s going to take more than some TV ads chanting “Trump Trump Trump Trump …”.   Ask Phil Berger about that. 

It’s important – at the very least – for Whatley to keep it respectably close. Closer to Dan Forest‘s 2020 finish than Mark Robinson‘s 2024 finish.