NC Republicans unsure on Senate candidate

by Public Policy Polling, September 10, 2013.

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds that with Virginia Foxx out of the mix Republicans in the state are less sure than ever about who they want their Senate candidate to be next year. 43% say they don't have a preference at this point, and the highest level of support any of the individual candidates gets for the nomination is 13%.

Leading the way at that 13% mark is Phil Berger. He's followed by Thom Tillis at 12%, Jim Cain at 11%, Heather Grant at 8%, Greg Brannon at 6%, Mark Harris at 5%, and Lynn Wheeler at 2%. Most Republicans in the state want someone other than Tillis, the most significant announced candidate, to be their standard-bearer. But there continues to be little consensus about who that alternative should be.

At this point it doesn't matter who the Republicans put forward though- Kay Hagan has a wide lead over all of them. She's up 12 on Heather Grant at 48/36, 13 on Jim Cain and Lynn Wheeler at 50/37 and 48/35 respectively, 14 on Mark Harris at 50/36, 15 on Thom Tillis at 51/36, 16 on Greg Brannon at 52/36, and 17 on Phil Berger at 53/36. Hagan is up by at least 16 points with independents in every match up.

Despite the good-sized leads for Hagan at this point there's still strong reason to think this will be a close race.

Voters continue to be pretty closely divided on her job performance, with 43% approving and 39% disapproving. And the Republicans are being hurt by low name recognition at this point, with none of the potential candidates known to even half of the electorate. The race is likely to tighten up a good bit once the GOP settles on a candidate and that person becomes better known, but for now Hagan looks like she's in good shape.

Reflecting the rest of the country, North Carolinians are heavily opposed to US military action in Syria- just 19% support it compared to 62% who think it's a bad idea. There's a bipartisan consensus on the issue with Democrats (25/48), independents (20/65), and Republicans (10/81) all opposing action in Syria.

If there is going to be military action in Syria though North Carolinians have one idea for where to get the ground troops- by a 51/31 margin voters in the state support sending the entire Congress to go help with the fighting. Independent voters, by a 62/28 spread, are particularly enthusiastic about that notion.