Not everything's rosy, but jobs numbers are a positive sign

Editorial by Wilmington Star-News, April 22, 2014.

For two months running, North Carolina's unemployment rate has bested the national average. That's a place we are much more comfortable than where we were for the first part of the recovery – worse off than most of the nation.

North Carolina's unemployment rate in March dropped a tenth of a point to 6.3 percent, compared with the national rate of 6.7 percent – a marked improvement in the long years since the recession hit this state even harder than it socked much of the rest of the country. The rate has dropped for nine straight months now.

North Carolina's governor and Republican legislative leaders attribute the improvement in part to cutting benefit limits and kicking people off unemployment sooner, as well as business-friendly policies. Except, the numbers also tell another, less obvious story.

Over the past year the labor force also contracted by about 50,000 people. Although 106,000 people left the unemployment rolls in the year since last April, a little more than half became re-employed. The rest? They dropped out of the labor pool. Maybe they moved out of state, or had enough money saved to retire early. But another likelihood, economists say, is that their benefits ran out and they simply gave up.

Now for better news: Although the April-March figures indicate a smaller labor force, both January and in March saw increases in the number of people either employed or looking for work. That is a sign that the work force may again be growing – a good economic indicator if the trend continues.

Earlier this year, University of North Carolina Wilmington economist Woody Hall noted that the work force in Southeastern North Carolina had already begun showing signs of growth, leading him to be more optimistic about economic growth in general for the coming year. And late last year an economics professor at N.C. State University predicted that the state would add more than 100,000 jobs in 2014. At the time, Michael Walden was predicting a 6.5 percent to 7 percent unemployment rate for the year. March's numbers were even better, another positive sign.

Walden's report noted that the state's job market has been increasing for several years, albeit at a seeming snail's pace during the first difficult years. Economists say the unemployment rate often is one of last things to show improvement in a recovery.

Job growth is not evenly spread, and a large percentage of jobs added have been in low-wage fields. Unemployment tends to be higher in rural areas in particular. Most of the jobs added in the years prior to Walden's study were in the Triangle, the Triad and the Charlotte metropolitan area.

That said, all counties have seen their unemployment rates falling, and the economists seem surer that job growth will continue.

It has been a long climb, and there are still potential pitfalls ahead, but the days of double-digit inflation statewide appear to be history for now. We'll take that.

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