Poll highlights challenges for NC education reformers

Those who seek to maximize efficiency of North Carolina’s public education spending — getting the best bang for the buck — should look closely at results of a recent poll.

The numbers suggest some efficiency measures could face significant headwinds.

January’s Carolina Journal Poll of likely general election voters certainly offered good news for education reformers. School choice options remain popular. The Opportunity Scholarship Program (64%), charter schools (57%), and open enrollment (79%) all enjoy majority support.

Just 35% of voters expressed satisfaction with local schools. An even smaller number (29%) offered a similar assessment to public education statewide. Yet 30% of voters (46% of Democrats) still prefer a traditional public school over private, charter, home, or virtual alternatives.

Those numbers suggest significant interest in improving North Carolina’s public schools. But other poll results suggest less support for linking tax dollars more directly to student success.

Asked how much the state, federal, and local governments spend for an average public school student’s education, just 20% of likely voters correctly identified the proper range of $10,000-$15,000. Some 34% guessed the spending level was lower, 13% guessed it was higher, and the other 33% admitted they were unsure.

Independents (42%) were most likely to guess that government spends less than $10,000 per pupil, with 37% of Democrats and 25% of Republicans offering the same estimate. Some 15% of independents, 14% of Democrats, and 8% of Republicans believed that per-pupil spending was less than $5,000.

The poll’s next question revealed the answer. Taxpayers spend an average of $13,100 on public school students. A plurality (43%) labeled that number “too little” spending per pupil. Just 16% answered “too much.” Some 15% considered the number appropriate, and 26% were unsure.

The partisan split was clear. Nearly three out of every five Democrats (59%) answered “too little,” with just 5% choosing “too much.” Among independents, 44% choose “too little” and 21% “too much.” Republicans were most likely to say “too much” (25%), but a plurality of GOP voters (26%) also answered “too little.” Republicans were most likely to say they were unsure (33%).

These answers present clear implications.

First, the actual per-pupil spending number doesn’t prompt widespread sticker shock. Remember that more than 40% of independents and well over one-third of Democrats believed that government spent less than $10,000 per pupil. Once they learned that the actual number was at least 30% higher than they had guessed, they were still more likely than not to believe that taxpayers ought to spend more.

Democrats were 12 times as likely to indicate that per pupil spending was too low than to answer that $13,100 per pupil was too much. Among independents, the ratio was 2-to-1. Even among Republicans, from whom one might expect more fiscal conservatism, about as many voters chose “too much” as “too little” when asked to assess the $13,100 figure.

This leads directly to a second lesson from the poll numbers. Those who seek wiser use of existing education resources need strong arguments.

More voters than not appear to believe that the answer to North Carolina’s education woes is spending more money. Reformers will need to present clear evidence from other states — and nations — indicating that student achievement can improve by spending existing resources more effectively.

One more poll question is worth mentioning in this context.

Voters were asked to select a statement that “best reflects your view of how the state should approach teacher pay.” A clear majority (51%) answered that higher teacher pay is “essential regardless of measured student outcomes.” Less than 35% said teacher pay increases “should be tied to improved student outcomes.” Less than 8% answered “improving student achievement should take priority over teacher pay.” Less than 2% supported keeping teacher pay unchanged.

Republicans (52%) were most likely to support linking pay hikes to student achievement, while Democrats (70%) and independents (57%) both supported the answer that treated higher teacher pay as a worthwhile goal regardless of outcomes.

It’s no secret that North Carolinians support teachers. The poll suggests that voter support for higher pay has a weaker link to student achievement than reformers might have expected. Policymakers would be wise to keep voters’ sympathies in mind when pursuing policies that reward the best teachers to keep them in the classroom.

All of us should support measures that ensure tax dollars are spent as efficiently as possible. The latest Carolina Journal Poll suggests that North Carolinians need more convincing about the vital link between efficient public spending and the best possible public school performance.

Mitch Kokai is senior political analyst for the John Locke Foundation.