A Canary in the coal mine

A rarity, not Republican or Democrat, Charlie Cook’s been around a long time writing the Cook Political Report, studying voters, talking about races for House, Senate, President.

Calling it a ‘canary in a coal-mine’ he just looked at Fox News new poll in Ohio.

Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016, 8 points in 2020, 11 points in 2024. Republicans won 8 of the last 11 Senate races.

But this election the grounds shifted.

Democrat Sherrod Brown’s leading Republican Senator Jon Husted by 8 points, 53% to 45%.

Two years ago Trump won by 11. Brown now leads by 8. That’s a groundshaking 19 point shift.

So what changed?

One thing.

This election, switching sides, Independents are voting for the Democrat – Sherrod Brown – by 18 points, 53% to 35%.

What did Sherrod Brown do to make that happen?

Nothing.

As Cook pointed out two years ago Trump was popular. Now he’s unpopular. And the Democrat now leads in the Senate race.

What can Jon Husted do about it?

Not much. He can’t wave a magic wand and make people like Trump.

Politicians naturally like to believe they control their own fate. That’s an old affliction called pride. But in the end they don’t. Their fate’s not in their hands. And what’s happening in Ohio proves it.

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