For the GOP, things just keep getting worse

The polls for Republicans keep getting worse. The latest one from Catawba College has Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley by 14 points in North Carolina’s US Senate race. Donald Trump is underwater with 54% disapproving and only 43% approving. Those two measures will strongly impact the election results in November.

Midterm elections are almost always a referendum on the party in the White House. Trump’s dismal approval ratings will likely dampen turnout among his supporters and turn lower-information swing voters against Republicans.

The Senate race is at the top of the ticket. If Cooper wins by more than a handful of votes, he will likely have coattails that run down the ballot. Candidates for Congress, the appellate courts, and the legislature will all benefit from a large victory margin. In addition, if Whatley can’t close the gap in the next two months, the national money won’t show up in the state for Republicans, hurting turnout and giving Democrats more control of the airwaves.

In other measures, voters favor Democrats for the state legislature. In the state House, voters prefer Democrats by a margin of seven points, 44% to 37%. In the state Senate, the margin is eight, 45% to 37%. If the 15% or so of voters who are undecided break heavily for Democrats, it’s Katy bar the door. Democrats would have a chance to take control of one of the chambers, most likely the state House.

Democrats also have the advantage in the Congressional generic ballot. Voters say they prefer the Democratic candidate by a margin of 46% to 37%. That margin puts the race in North Carolina’s 11th District in play, where Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards. If those numbers hold, incumbent Democrat Don Davis will also likely win re-election in the district Republicans tried to gerrymander this year.

The numbers also look good for Supreme Court Justice Anita Earls. She holds a five-point lead over Sarah Stevens, who just stepped down from her state Senate seat last week. That’s a pretty narrow margin, but Earls has consistently led in polls and unless something changes, the undecided voters are more likely to break for Democrats than Republicans.

Republicans could still fix their problems, but time is running out. Getting out of the war with Iran would be a good start, but probably not enough. Prices need to start falling or at least stabilizing. Republicans in North Carolina still haven’t passed a budget, though that will probably happen. It’s hard to address the discontent in the country in just four months.

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