Giving Whatley some credit

 I have been harshly critical of Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign. I have found his messaging to be off-point and his media performances to be less intellectually acute than they had been in his years as chairman of the NCGOP and RNC. Whatley had always impressed me as a political operative. But his campaign persona was a sad, limp balloon. 

As I said, I’ve been harshly critical. But a series of recent polls has inspired me to consider whether my judgments had been too harsh. Carolina Forward (to which I contribute) released a poll showing Whatley within five points of former Governor Roy Cooper. Cooper’s relatively low numbers in the high 40s did not seem out of the ordinary to me. Whatley, however, was polling more robustly than Cooper’s previous challengers had and seemed already to be consolidating Republican support. 

That was the most important factor making me wonder whether Whatley’s effort had been a bit more impressive than I’d thought. Specifically, Whatley is in a stronger position in his primary than I would have expected given his lack of charisma and the populist right’s natural skepticism of a long-time insider. Polling has shown him well ahead of his two primary challengers and poised to sweep to victory in March. 

Whatley is leading attorney Don Brown and conspiracy theorist Michele Morrow by almost thirty points. He’s fashioned himself a healthy cushion to rely on if one or both of his opponents were to surge. Compare this comfortable lead to the travails Thom Tillis faced in winning his 2014 primary. Tillis had to fight, consistently, to escape the downward pull of Tea-Party populist politics, winning the primary solidly but only after expending a great deal of effort. Whatley doesn’t seem to be facing that kind of challenge. 

This, despite the fact that Brown and Morrow are stronger candidates than Tillis’s Tea Party opponents were. Tillis’s main challenger was Dr. Greg Brannon, an anti-government extremist whose ravings were not notably more cogent than Mark Robinson’s. (It should be obvious that Brannon was a better person than Robinson; how couldn’t he be?) By contrast, Don Brown strikes me as having good political instincts and a sound feel for 

MAGA sentiment in our state. He’s built a respectable following online and is pushing ahead. Morrow, the conspiracy theorist, has faded a bit since her days as NC-MAGA’s favorite roman candle, but if anything she began this race better-known than Whatley. Whatley is still winning handily. 

At the least, Whatley’s lead in the primary suggests that he is still an effective intra-party operative. With limited charisma and name recognition, he has built a secure lead in a populist party running against viable MAGA opponents. Whatley’s greatest risk in this primary was that his dominance in establishment circles would distance him from the pitchfork demographic, giving Brown or Morrow the chance to swoop in and steal the populist vote. The most outspoken MAGA activists still distrust and even loathe Whatley. But Whatley seems to have come to an understanding with the state’s Republican voters that he is a “good-enough” candidate to nominate for the crusade against Roy Cooper. We’ll see whether Whatley can add some zest and passion to his campaign later. For now, I have to reluctantly give the man some credit 

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