Helping Berger out the door

The most compelling primary of the year is the one between Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger and Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page. Berger is the longest-serving Senate leader in North Carolina history. He oversaw the restructuring of North Carolina from a progressive beacon to a Republican laboratory, but he may have served too long. Page is an immensely popular local figure who has clashed with the powerful Berger family in Rockingham County.

Recent polls show Berger with a slight edge after one last fall showed Page with a significant lead. Rumor has it that Berger and his allies have spent almost $6 million on television ads to save his seat. Page hasn’t spent a fraction of that. Despite the discrepancy, the race is still neck and neck.

A Berger loss would be monumental. Not only has he been the most powerful Republican in the state since the GOP took control of the legislature in 2011, but he’s also been the primary fundraiser for Republican senators. If he has really spent $6 million already, he has probably blown most of the money that would otherwise go to competitive races this fall. If he loses, he won’t be able to replenish his war chest even if he tries. If he wins, the money will continue to flow.

With that in mind, it’s surprising that we haven’t seen progressive money involved in the race. Of course, we may yet. If Berger hasn’t closed the deal with $6 million, a million or so against him could make the difference in Page’s favor. Late money often pays dividends.

If the top Democrat were fighting for his political career, you can be almost certain Republican money would be helping him out the door. That money might be on the way. The final two weeks would be the time to strike, as late breakers are most likely to sway the election.

Some progressive dark money group should help Page. It’s not too late. In fact, today is probably still too early. The support needs to come at the right time with the right message for the right audience.

The right audience consists of the people who will decide whom to support right before they vote. The right message is one that drives a wedge between Berger and those voters. And the right time is long enough to get the message to resonate but short enough to keep it from becoming a campaign issue.

I’ve always said that underfunded campaigns need to be strategically opportunistic and willing to gamble. Right now, Democrats and progressives have an opportunity to try to reshape the political battlefield in the state Senate. If they could take out Berger, they could significantly reduce campaign funds for competitive races in the fall and face a less unified and disciplined Senate in the 2027 long session. It might not work, but it’s certainly worth a try.