Mischievous Genie
Published July 24, 2013
By Carter Wrenn, Talking About Politics, July 23, 2013.
Over a week ago in a newspaper story – after a day of women chanting “shame, shame, shame” – a Republican consultant declared bluntly House Speaker Thom Tillis had better support the Senate’s abortion bill or just about every Republican was going to be mad with him.
Next, in the same story, a Democratic consultant declared if Thom Tillis supported that bill just about every woman in North Carolina was going to vote for Kay Hagan.
Then, finally, a professor said Kay Hagan needs 65% of the women’s vote to win – so Tillis endorsing that Senate bill would be good news for Hagan. But, then, some mathematical genie slipped through the ether and curled into the professor’s logic and next he said the Republican candidate for Senate needs 50% of the women’s vote to win.
Of course, both of those facts can’t be true. 100% - 65% does not equal 50%. Not even in political science.
And that’s politics as the curtain comes down at the legislature: Demonstrators chanting, consultants grinding axes, confused professors and a mischievous genie.
July 24, 2013 at 7:24 pm
dj anderson says:
That genie confused me. I think Carter is saying, if Hagan needs 65% of female votes to win and Tillis needs 50% of women's votes to win, then why couldn't Hagan win with 51% of women or Tillis with 35%? I guess that means 14% of the female vote is going to determine who is our Senator. Hagan will get all of the pro-abortion rights votes and Tillis would get most or many of the anti-abortion rights votes. Let me ask what percentage of female voters in NC are pro-abortion rights? What percentage of women will not vote for anyone who is pro-abortion rights? How many female voters put abortion first?
How many single issue voters are there? Gun control gets out voters who would not otherwise vote. Abortion, animal rights, cannabis are such issues with varying numbers of voters.
