NC Senate race tightens considerably

The North Carolina Senate race has tightened up quite a bit in the last couple months, with early attacks ads on Kay Hagan and the unpopular rollout of Obamacare taking a toll on her poll numbers. Hagan is now basically tied with her Republican challengers, leading Heather Grant 43/40, Thom Tillis 44/42, and Mark Harris 43/41 while trailing Greg Brannon 44/43.

Over the last two months Hagan's approval rating is pretty consistent. It was 43% in September and it's at 44% now. But her disapproval has spiked from 39% all the way up t0 49% over that period of time. It's no coincidence that the decline in Hagan's approval numbers tracks pretty closely with a big decline in President Obama's popularity over that same period of time. He's gone from having voters in the state pretty evenly divided about him in September at 48/49 to disapproving pretty strongly at 43/53.

It seems likely that the difficulties with the rollout of Obamacare are helping to make life more difficult for Hagan. It's always been unpopular in North Carolina and currently 38% of voters say they approve of it to 48% who disapprove, numbers pretty consistent with what we've found over the years. But what's really hurting Democrats is its being back in the news- 69% of voters say its rollout has been unsuccessful so far to only 25% who deem it a success. 49% say the rollout has been 'very unsuccessful.'

Thom Tillis has finally opened up a bit of a lead in the Republican primary to face off against Hagan next year. He's getting 20% to 14% for Mark Harris, 11% for Greg Brannon, and 8% for Heather Grant. The largest group of voters, at 47%, still remains undecided.

“When voter anger was focused on what was happening in Raleigh over the summer it really helped Kay Hagan’s poll numbers,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “With that anger geared more toward Washington now, this is again looking like it will be one of the most competitive races in the country next year.”

PPP surveyed 701 North Carolina voters, including an oversample of 498 Republican primary voters, from November 8th to 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/- 3.7% and for the Republican primary part it’s +/-4.4%. PPP’s surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

General Election Toplines

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President

Barack Obama's job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 43%

Disapprove...................................................... 53%

Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Kay

Hagan’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%

Disapprove...................................................... 49%

Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Greg Brannon?

Favorable........................................................ 9%

Unfavorable .................................................... 22%

Not sure .......................................................... 70%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Heather Grant?

Favorable........................................................ 9%

Unfavorable .................................................... 19%

Not sure .......................................................... 72%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mark Harris?

Favorable........................................................ 11%

Unfavorable .................................................... 19%

Not sure .......................................................... 70%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Thom Tillis?

Favorable........................................................ 16%

Unfavorable .................................................... 28%

Not sure .......................................................... 56%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were

Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Greg

Brannon, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 43%

Greg Brannon ................................................. 44%

Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were

Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Heather

Grant, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 43%

Heather Grant ................................................. 40%

Not sure .......................................................... 17%

Q9 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were

Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Mark

Harris, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 43%

Mark Harris ..................................................... 41%

Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q10 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were

Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican Thom

Tillis, who would you vote for?

Kay Hagan...................................................... 44%

Thom Tillis ...................................................... 42%

Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q11 Do you approve or disapprove of the Affordable

Care Act?

Approve .......................................................... 38%

Disapprove...................................................... 48%

Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q12 Do you think the implementation of the

Affordable Care Act so far has been very

successful, somewhat successful, somewhat

unsuccessful, very unsuccessful, or are you

not sure?

Very successful............................................... 4%

Somewhat successful ..................................... 21%

Somewhat unsuccessful ................................. 20%

Very unsuccessful........................................... 49%

Not sure .......................................................... 7%