New polling shows a surge toward Harris in NC and other swing states
Published August 15, 2024
The latest Cook Political Report Swing State Project poll, released Wednesday, shows Vice President Kamala Harris outperforming or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven swing states, including North Carolina.
Harris holds a narrow lead overall in the battleground states with 48 percent of respondents saying they’d vote for her, compared to 47 percent for Trump.
It’s a notable shift from the last Swing State Project survey in May, in which Trump surpassed President Joe Biden by three points overall. Trump led or tied Biden in each of the seven swing states.
In North Carolina, Harris leads Trump 46-44 percent when third party candidates are included. The margin becomes even narrower — 48-47 percent — in a head-to-head race.
The North Carolina numbers reflect a sharp contrast to the May survey, in which Trump led Biden by eight percent with third party candidates included, and seven points head-to-head.
Harris is tied with Trump in Georgia, but now leads in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The only swing state where Trump still holds a lead is Nevada, according to the poll. He’s up 47-42 percent over Harris when considering third party candidates, and 48-45 percent in a contest between the two.
Harris’ polling surge results from consolidation of the Democratic base and increased support among independent voters. She’s revitalized the Democratic Party, gaining a record-number of campaign donations and a spike in volunteers since replacing Biden in the race.
Both candidates will visit North Carolina this week. Trump is scheduled to speak in Asheville Wednesday evening and Harris will be in Raleigh on Friday.
The Swing State Project is a survey research collaboration between the Cook Political Report and two polling firms: Democratic-aligned BSG and GOP-aligned GS Strategy Group.
In total, 2,867 likely voters across seven battleground states completed the survey, conducted between July 26 and Aug. 2.
Harris has made up ground across the board, now leading or tied in all but one battleground state (Biden had been behind or tied in all).
Arizona: Harris: 48 Trump: 46 Harris +2
Georgia: Harris: 48 Trump: 48 Tie
Michigan: Harris: 49 Trump: 46 Harris +3
Nevada: Harris: 45 Trump: 48 Trump +3
North Carolina: Harris:48 Trump: 47 Harris +1
Pennsylvania: Harris:49 Trump: 48 Harris +1
Wisconsin: Harris: 49 Trump: 46 Harris +3
