That final, desperate push
Published October 11, 2014
by Thomas Mills, Politics NC, October 10, 2014.
It has the feel of a final, desperate push. According the N&O, the GOP “dominated the airways” in the last two weeks of September in an attempt to break through Hagan’s small but stubborn lead. No outside groups except Rove’s Crossroads GPS has air time reserved for Tillis after Tuesday. And yesterday, the Tillis campaign released internal poll numbers–that showed him behind.
First, the ad buy. For months, Hagan has held a small lead over Tillis and a large financial advantage. Republicans realized that if they couldn’t catch up and get ahead soon, that lead would solidify and the Democratic money advantage would put them away in October. They bought big and hoped for traction. It didn’t seem to work.
The NRSC has no ad time in North Carolina after Tuesday but are shifting money from Michigan to other states, not here, an indication that Tillis is no longer a priority. Crossroads will likely stay up here just in case there is a late break in the race or news cycle and to keep Democratic money in North Carolina. If Crossroads goes, the Democratic SuperPacs will start to shift money from NC into other battlegrounds. If it’s just the Hagan and Tillis campaigns buying ads down the stretch, Hagan will bury Tillis with her significantly larger war chest.
Finally, that poll. No campaign releases an internal poll showing its candidate behind in mid-October unless they are desperate. Their spin says that Hagan is struggling with the voters most likely to vote and her lead is made up of those least likely to show up on Election Day. Well, those least likely people are coming and in droves. The Wake County Board of Election compares new registrations to a presidential year. Analysis of the mail-in absentee voting shows Democrats outperforming Republicans even though the GOP has traditionally dominated mail-in ballots in North Carolina.
With two debates this week, the GOP will look at a round of polling this weekend to see if Tillis scored any points. If he hasn’t moved the needle, though, the national Republicans will likely start focusing their energies elsewhere. If he can show serious momentum, they may try to bolster him down the stretch.
Short of movement, though, the final three weeks will be painful. The Tillis campaign team will need to find ways to bolster the candidate and volunteers as their resources shrink and enthusiasm wanes. The partisans on twitter will get even more shrill, blaming the media of biased coverage or missing stories. They’ll gnash their teeth and howl about the Democratic lies but they’ll just be talking to themselves. The only cure for their angst is Election Day.
It sucks. I know. I’ve been there.
October 11, 2014 at 9:52 am
Norm Kelly says:
Ain't it funny. The dems constantly, consistently, always whine and complain that it's the Republicans who get so much support from 'the rich'. It's always the libs who whine & complain about Republicans buying elections. It's always the libs who whine and complain about the things they are most guilty of. And, once again, it turns out the dems are whining & complaining about their own problems. Really doesn't matter if the majority of low-information voters come out to vote for K. If they weren't low-information types, like the media who support K, they wouldn't be voting for K. (so, it really does matter because another term with libs controlling the Senate could be another disaster piled on top of the disaster of the current lib Senate.)
The libs have a substantial war chest that the Republicans don't have the resources to touch. Have we seen any editorials from the libs in the media about the libs buying this election? Have we seen any ads purchased by the unions who support libs complaining that 'the rich' are buying the election, taking control away from 'the people'? Well, of course, we are NOT going to see the lib unions whining about their allies buying the election. That would be counter-productive for both the libs AND the union allies. Libs whining about the Koch brothers, but no media types whining about Soros. Wonder why? If Soros ever spent any money to support a Republican or Libertarian candidate, would the 'news' media notice and whine about that? Undoubtedly.
IS this another case of media bias? Nope. Media bias is like alien spaceships. Simply a figment. Just ask your friendly N&D editorial board member; they'll be happy to tell you how unbiased their never-ending support for demons is.
Is media bias the reason that K continues to poll well? Probably not. But bias does hurt the process. Perhaps media bias plays as big a role as 'outside' money or PAC money from 'the rich' Republican donors. So long as you ignore big money from outside sources that support libs. Ain't it interesting how libs continue to pass or propose legislation that exempts their union allies from all campaign finance reform?
