On the first of May, 2026, tens of thousands of North Carolina teachers walked off the job and onto Halifax Mall in the largest education protest the state has seen in nearly a decade. Meanwhile the state legislature, as of this writing, remains the only one in the country that has not passed a state budget – an intra-party stalemate between Republican leadership that is nearly a year old. (While there are reports of a budget deal now in the works, the golden rule of the state budget is: believe it when you see it.)
The May edition of the Carolina Forward Poll shows that voters are broadly losing their patience. Tracking the national mood writ large, North Carolina voters have soured dramatically on the Trump administration, and combined with in-state governance failures, this is dragging down the Republican ticket in an ominous harbinger for the party this November.
Cooper looms large
Former Governor Roy Cooper now leads Michael Whatley by 7 points in the U.S. Senate race, widening his lead from 5 points in the January edition. Of particular note is the rural split, traditionally a stronghold of Republican support, where Michael Whatley now leads former Governor Cooper by only 1 point.
Cooper’s gain in this poll is consistent across races. In the state Supreme Court race, incumbent Justice Anita Earls has opened up a 4-point lead over her Republican challenger, State Rep. Sarah Stevens, compared to a tied race in January:
On the state legislative generic ballot, Democrats now lead Republicans by 6 points, after the two parties sat tied in January:
One obvious explanation for the incremental blue shift since January is Donald Trump’s still-sinking popularity. The May edition of the Carolina Forward Poll finds Donald Trump’s net job approval at (-12) (43 approve/55 disapprove), compared to (-6) in January (46 approve, 52 disapprove). This, too, is consistent with other polling not just in North Carolina, but across the country. The Trump administration is now significantly less popular than either Trump’s first administration at the same period, or the Biden administration – and still sinking. This movement is having a clear effect down the ticket.
By comparison, Donald Trump’s Presidential job approval rating hit -8 points (42 approve/50 disapprove) among North Carolina voters back in October of 2018 (see: HPU poll, October 2018). In that year’s midterm election, voters in North Carolina shifted approximately 2 points more Democratic compared to the 2016 election.
By comparison, Governor Josh Stein’s job approval figures have moved in the opposite direction. His net approval has climbed from (+13) in January (49/36) to (+16) today (51/35). Governor Stein has been, by almost any measure, the most popular figure in North Carolina politics in recent memory – and still trending upward.
On the issues
On May 1st, teachers from across North Carolina staged the largest organized education protest the state has seen since 2018, demanding action on pay, classroom resources, and the legislature’s stalled budget. By a lucky coincidence, the Carolina Forward Poll was fielded the week directly after, and found support for the protest at roughly 2-to-1 across the electorate.
The May 1st teacher protest, and the issues animating it, win deep support across the spectrum. While largely falling on deaf ears in the state legislature, lawmakers are certainly hearing support from their constituents at home.
North Carolina is currently the only state in the country that has still failed to pass a state budget. For a one-party legislature with a supermajority one chamber, it has been a remarkable and public failure of governance. As of this writing, there have been public assurances given that a budget deal is in the works – but none has yet materialized.
Voters are broadly perplexed by the stalemate and largely unsure of whom to blame, and generally tend to adopt a “pox on both their houses” attitude towards the issue. But Republicans do carry a heavier share of the blame for the failure to pass a budget:
There is, at least, one issue where a large majority of North Carolinians across the political spectrum can agree: that datacenters should be paying state sales tax. Close to a majority of all voters outright agree that North Carolina’s sales tax breaks for datacenters, which were passed in 2015, should be ended, with about a third of voters saying those exemptions should at least be modified. Ending North Carolina’s state sales tax exemptions for datacenters was a key component of Governor Stein’s budget proposal, and it looks like the political logic might force reluctant state lawmakers to go along with it:
The broad story of the May edition of the Carolina Forward Poll should deeply concern Republicans. The 2026 election cycle is shaping up to be a significant “blue wave” event politically, with major implications for the balance of power in North Carolina and nationally.
Methodology
The full toplines report and crosstabs are available for public. The Carolina Forward Poll was conducted by Change Research, who surveyed 957 North Carolina likely general election voters from May 4-8, 2026. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.
