The short, fateful legislative session

“Lock up your daughters and horses, the legislature is back in town,” a statement sometimes said in jest. Whether humorous or not it is notice that our lawmakers are back in session. The so-called “short session” has recently become anything but short; some have dragged on until the end of the calendar year.

Don’t get your hopes up this one will be short. The 2025 session was not highly productive and there are many, potentially controversial and explosive issues to consider. And let’s not forget that legislative elections will take place November 3^rd. If the session hasn’t concluded its work by late August incumbents will want time to go home and campaign. Regardless of when it concludes we predict this session will determine the fate of large numbers of people and issues.

None are perhaps more visible than passing a budget. There are several potential roadblocks standing in its way; none so large as the question of what Phil Berger are we going to experience? Berger has been the primary force in legislative decision-making in recent years, but is now a lame duck, having lost his primary election. Will Berger be more accommodating, wanting to leave office by polishing his legacy so as to be remembered kindly, or will we see the more defiant Berger, insistent on getting his way?

If past is prologue, expect the latter option. It is commonly accepted that our state would likely have passed a budget last year but for Berger’s steadfast insistence on issues, most especially on tax cuts. Lawmakers had agreed on cuts in personal income tax rates from 3.9 percent to 3.4 percent starting this July and that agreement would have carved off another one-half percent for the year beginning in July 2027, but there was a provision that if conditions warranted, the 2.99 percent rate would be postponed. A consensus budget forecast has predicted that such a cut would result in a structural deficit of $2.8 billion for the fiscal year beginning next July. Berger insisted that deficit wouldn’t happen and held fast on the further tax cut. The House, the Governor and a host of others believed the forecast accurate and wanted to delay the cut. On session opening House Speaker Destin Hall said that real progress is being made toward getting a budget passed. If so, we might get an insight on the Berger question.

Any budget would have contained pay raises for our teachers and state employees, but there were significant differences between Berger’s Senate and the House on how much to increase pay. Teachers and state employees are extremely unhappy… and they vote, as incumbent legislators are aware. There were other points of disagreement, including whether to build another children’s hospital. The Senate urged its passage, the House demurred, saying the state already have enough and could use the money elsewhere.

But then there was Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which took an axe to Medicaid payments to states. Our Department of Health and Human Services says North Carolina’s Medicaid account will run out of money in May unless a $319 million hole is plugged, impacting some 3.1 million residents. On opening day, it was announced an agreement had been reached to fund Medicaid, however unanswered is funding for the coming fiscal year.

The BBB bill also transferred the administration and financial responsibility of SNAP benefits to local counties. They want the estimated $52 million cost paid by the state. Some legislative leaders say the state doesn’t have the money, obviously not true since the state has billions in reserves.

Simultaneously, legislators are considering a constitutional amendment on November’s ballot which would restrict how much and how quickly cities and counties could raise property taxes. This amendment might be popular with homeowners, but you can expect full court opposition from cities and counties. Up to 40 percent of their revenues come from property taxes and these restrictions could put locally elected officials between a rock and hard place. On one hand they face increasing costs for everything; on the other potential restrictions will impact how to pay them.

It is easy to see how these issues will determine the fate of teachers, our schools, education, healthcare and many other services to people. As previously acknowledged lawmakers understand their votes could also impact their own fates come election day. Already, more than 10 of the 170 incumbent legislators won’t return come January 2027 because of primary defeats or resignations and there are contested races in many districts. Lawmakers’ votes this summer could determine the fate of which political party is in charge come January.

The bottom line is that perhaps more than normal we will watch closely what happens in this short session and encourage you to do the same.

Tom Campbell is a Hall of Fame North Carolina broadcaster and columnist who has covered North Carolina public policy issues since 1965.  Contact him at tomcamp@ncspin.com