More than 38% of likely Republican primary voters say they support Michael Whatley to win next week’s US Senate primary election in North Carolina, according to the latest Carolina Journal Poll. Whatley holds a 30-point lead over second-place candidate Don Brown, at 7.5%.
Yet 50% of those surveyed indicated they were unsure about who they would support in the March 3 primary election, according to the Carolina Journal Poll, a survey of 600 GOP primary voters conducted by Harper Polling on Feb. 22-23.
No other candidate attracted more than 2% of the votes of those surveyed. Michele Morrow (1.6%), Thomas Johnson (1%), Margot Dupre (0.6%), Elizabeth Temple (0.6%), and Richard Dansie (0.4%) rounded out the field. Dupre appears on the primary election ballot, though the State Board of Elections disqualified her from the race after a residency challenge.
“Michael Whatley has a clear advantage and is above the level you’d normally want to see to secure a nomination. But when half the electorate remains undecided this late in the game, that’s a flashing yellow light, not a victory lap,” said Donald Bryson, John Locke Foundation CEO and Carolina Journal publisher. “Late-deciding voters will determine whether this becomes a consolidation story or a surprise.”
President Donald Trump registered 81% job approval among Republican primary voters, with 62% of them registering strong approval. Some 17% of likely GOP primary voters indicated disapproval of the Republican president, with 13% indicating strong disapproval.
Trump endorsed Whatley for the Senate race shortly after two-term incumbent US Sen. Thom Tillis indicated that he would not seek re-election this year. Whatley secured 45% support from voters who approved of the president’s job performance and just 8% support from those expressing disapproval of Trump. Brown matched Whatley at 8% support of those who disapproved of Trump, while 76% of the voters who disapproved of Trump indicated they were unsure of their vote in the Senate primary.
Slightly more than two-thirds of Republican primary voters (69%) indicated enthusiasm about voting in the 2026 elections, with one-third (33%) saying they were “very” enthusiastic. About 25% indicated they were not enthusiastic about this year’s elections.
About 74% of GOP primary voters said they had a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, compared to 77% who said they identified with the Make America Great Again movement. About 86% of those who identified as MAGA also approved of the Republican Party. About 81% of GOP primary voters indicated support for the Make America Healthy Again movement.
Some 63% of those surveyed said there is a difference between a “MAGA Republican” and a “traditional Republican,” with just 25% disagreeing with that idea. While 58% of those approving of Trump’s job performance spotted the difference, 85% of those disapproving of the president’s job performance indicated a difference between the two groups.
“The poll reminds us that Donald Trump clearly has reshaped the Republican Party,” Bryson said. “The president’s influence will play out in North Carolina’s election this year and is likely to impact Republicans — and Democrats — looking ahead to 2028 and beyond.”
Beyond the Senate race and the president, the latest Carolina Journal Poll also asked likely GOP primary voters for their assessments of six other statewide elected Republican officials. Sen. Ted Budd fared best, with 50% favorability versus 18% of those surveyed indicating an unfavorable view. Tillis registered 33% favorability, while nearly 51% assigned the state’s senior US senator an unfavorable rating.
Among the other four officials listed, 44% to 47% of likely Republican primary voters indicated they had never heard of the person. All had higher favorable than unfavorable numbers: Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul Newby (19% favorable, 6% unfavorable); State Auditor Dave Boliek (18% favorable, 4% unfavorable); State Treasurer Brad Briner (16% favorable, 4% unfavorable); and Labor Commissioner Luke Farley (19% favorable, 3% unfavorable).
On issues, 79% of likely Republican primary voters said they approved of tariffs on imported goods, with 17% expressing disapproval. A plurality (46%) said US consumers pay the cost of tariffs, with 37% saying foreign countries and businesses bear the costs. About 6% answered US businesses, while 11% said they were unsure.
“What’s striking is that a majority of Republican primary voters believe American consumers or businesses ultimately bear the cost of tariffs, yet nearly four out of five still support them,” Bryson said. “With President Trump’s approval above 80% among these voters, that tells us this is less about textbook economics and more about giving the president’s kite more string.”
Almost 79% of those surveyed hold a favorable view of “recent federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) efforts,” and 74% believe North Carolina’s overall burden of income, sales, and property taxes is too high.
Just 23% of likely Republican primary voters approve of how the state legislature “handled recent tax and budget negotiations,” with 36% registering disapproval and 40% saying they were unsure.
The Carolina Journal Poll also asked GOP primary voters about their primary news sources. With the chance to select their top three options, 44% selected cable news, 39% listed social media, 30% selected local broadcast television news, and 24% chose national broadcast TV news. The next most-popular options were talk radio (17%), Facebook (16%), YouTube (15%), podcasts (13%), and streaming apps (11%), with just 9% choosing newspapers.
Asked to choose the top three right-of-center sources they trust the most to get news about current events, just under 50% selected Fox News. Other top choices were Newsmax (27%), Joe Rogan (13%), and Tucker Carlson (13%).
