High Point University Poll on Presidential, US Senator and Gubernatorial races

A new High Point University Poll finds that North Carolinians planning to vote in the 2020 Democratic primary for president prefer U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden to other candidates.

Sanders leads Biden 25% to 19% among self-identified, registered Democratic voters and unaffiliated voters who said they would participate in the Democratic primary. Biden draws, however, 24% of a smaller group of voters that are most likely to vote in the Democratic primary, compared to 20% for Sanders.

Among the self-identified registered voters who may vote in the Democratic primary, other active candidates receiving a significant amount of support include former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (13%) and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren (12%). Rounding out the active candidates who received some support from these self-identified registered voters were Pete Buttigieg (6%), Andrew Yang (4%, though he has since suspended his campaign), Tom Steyer (3%), and U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (3%).

Other candidates on the ballot had 1% support or less. Some have already suspended their campaigns but remain on the ballot.

In the Republican primary for president, incumbent President Donald Trump has the support of 88% of self-identified, registered Republican voters and unaffiliated voters who said they would participate in the Republican primary. Trump has the support of 91% of the smaller group of voters most likely to vote in the North Carolina Republican primary for president. Other Republican candidates for president draw single digit support from registered voters, including Joe Walsh (4%) and Bill Weld (1%).

In the race for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, former State Senator Cal Cunningham has the most support (29%) among self-identified registered voters who may vote in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator. He is followed by State Senator Erica D. Smith (10%), Steven Swenson (5%) and Trevor Fuller (5%). A relatively large proportion of these self-identified registered voters (50%) do not yet express a preference in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, incumbent U.S. Senator Thom Tillis has the support of 52% of the self-identified registered voters who may participate in the Republican primary. Tillis is trailed by Paul Wright (6%), Sharon Hudson (3%) and Larry Holmquist (2%). More than one-third (38%) of these self-identified registered voters currently express no preference.  

In the Democratic primary for governor of North Carolina, incumbent Roy Cooper has support of 69% of the self-identified registered voters who may vote in the Democratic primary, and Ernest T. Reeves trails him with 10%. In the Republican primary for governor, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest has 54% support among these registered voters, and Holly Grange trails him with 10%. About one-third (36%) currently express no preference in that Republican primary.

“This poll looks ahead to Super Tuesday, March 3, when a number of important states like North Carolina will have their primaries,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, associate professor of political science and director of the HPU Poll. “As expected, we have an incumbent president with extremely high levels of support among those who will vote in the Republican primary and a very divided field on the Democratic side. The addition of former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg makes it even more difficult to know what will happen in the coming weeks.”

North Carolinians give Trump a job approval rating of 42%, with half (50%) of North Carolina residents saying they disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president.

North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper has an approval rating of 40%, and 33% of poll participants disapprove of the way he is handling his job. Meanwhile, 27% of these same North Carolina residents did not offer an opinion of Cooper’s job performance.

U.S. Senator Thom Tillis has a 31% approval rating, and 33% of North Carolina residents say they disapprove. Slightly more than one-third (36%) do not offer a view one way or another. 

Only 22% of North Carolinians approve of how U.S. Congress in general is doing its job, while 59% disapprove and 19% offer no view either way.

“The HPU Poll continues to track approval ratings of elected officials as we enter the primaries,” says Brian McDonald, adjunct professor and associate director of the HPU Poll. “We will be able to see how much these numbers change the closer we get to the 2020 election.”

 
 All adults – Presidential Job Approval (January/February 2020)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Approve – 42%

Disapprove – 50%

Don’t know/refuse – 8%

(All adult North Carolina residents phone and online sample, surveyed January 31 – February 6, 2020, n = 1,100 and credibility interval of +/- 3.6%)

 All adults – Governor Roy Cooper Approval (January/February 2020)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Roy Cooper is handling his job as Governor?

Approve – 40%

Disapprove – 33%

Don’t know/refuse – 27%

(All adult North Carolina residents phone and online sample, surveyed January 31 – February 6, 2020, n = 1,100 and credibility interval of +/- 3.6%)

All adults – U.S. Senator Thom Tillis Approval (January/February 2020)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Thom Tillis is handling his job as United States Senator?

Approve – 31%

Disapprove – 33%

Don’t know/refuse – 36%

(All adult North Carolina residents phone and online sample, surveyed January 31 – February 6, 2020, n = 1,100 and credibility interval of +/- 3.6%)

 All adults – U.S. Congress Approval (January/February 2020)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?

Approve – 22%

Disapprove – 59%

Don’t know/refused – 19%

(All adult North Carolina residents phone and online sample, surveyed January 31 – February 6, 2020, n = 1,100 and credibility interval of +/- 3.6%)

The most recent HPU Poll was fielded by live interviewers at the High Point University Survey Research Center calling on Jan. 31 through Feb. 6, 2020 and an online survey fielded at the same time. The responses from a sample of all North Carolina counties came from 1,100 adults interviewed online (808 respondents) as well as landline or cellular telephones (292 respondents). Estimates for registered voters are based on 875 interviews with respondents within the larger sample who self-identified as registered to vote. Likely voter estimates are based on responses from a subset of those registered voters. Likely voters were determined by asking a series of questions about their past and intended voting behavior that are available in the memo associated with this poll. The Survey Research Center contracted with Dynata, formerly Research Now SSI: https://www.dynata.com/ to acquire these samples, and fielded the online survey using its Qualtrics platform. This is a combined sample of live phone interviews and online interviews. The online sampling is from a panel of respondents, so their participation does not adhere to usual assumptions associated with random selection. Therefore, it is not appropriate to assign a classical margin of sampling error for the results. In this case, the SRC provides a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points to account for a traditional 95% confidence interval for the estimates (plus or minus 3 percentage points) and a design effect of 1.2 (based on the weighting). The data is weighted toward population estimates for age, gender, race/ethnicity, and education level based on U.S. Census numbers for North Carolina. Factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls. Details from this survey are available at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2020/02/69memoA.pdf