North Carolina is always competitive. Even in the wave election of 2018, Democrats won the only one on one statewide race between a Democrat and a Republican 51-49. When it’s a great political climate for Republicans they win by 2 or 3. When it’s a great political climate for Democrats they win by 2 or 3. The state is that closely divided.
This year is no different. PPP’s new statewide poll finds Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley 47-44 in the US Senate race and Anita Earls leading Sarah Stevens 43-40 in the Supreme Court race. All of the races for Court of Appeals are within three points one way or another.
The races are tight to begin with, and a path to victory exists for the Republicans in them. The undecideds in the Senate race voted for Donald Trump by 46 points last time. The undecideds in the Supreme Court race voted for Donald Trump by 27 points last time. If they end up moving off the fence to the party they voted for in 2024, it would be enough to put the GOP candidates slightly ahead in those races.
Midterm elections are often referendums on the President and North Carolina’s close division extends to feelings about Donald Trump- 47% of voters have a favorable opinion of him and 50% have an unfavorable one. The tightness of the statewide races reflect that tightness in attitudes toward the President.
Democrats are decently well positioned for this fall eight months out from November. But North Carolina never has a blowout election.
PPP interviewed 556 North Carolina voters on March 13th and 14th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%. Full results here
